This is the first of four in-season updates with my rankings. I don’t make changes without convincing evidence. Sometimes it takes 2-3 months for differences to mean any move up or down. Sometimes I’m sold on making the move sooner

Players’ overall future value (OFP, FV) dictates the rankings, so at times it doesn’t take much for the order to change.

* Players currently in the majors do not qualify, even if they maintain rookie status (Alex Hoppe, for example).

The pre-season Top 50 is here.

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After the first full month of the 2026 season, it’s impossible not to scramble the pre-season rankings. However, I’m not simply ranking the teams based on their win-loss records nor am I automatically buying their early start is sustainable.

As if the Mariners’ riches in the pitching department weren’t already vast.

Seattle selected nine pitchers in the first 11 rounds of the Draft last July, and while most of the audience is focused No. 3 overall pick Kade Anderson, fourth-round pick Mason Peters, and sixth-round pick Lucas Kelly, there’s another name to track.

Right-hander Jackson Steensma is a name to watch. He missed his entire junior season at Appalachian State in 2025 after having UCL surgery, but the Mariners made him their ninth-round pick,, anyway.

Steensma stands 6-foot-4 and about 245 pounds, and has a chance at four major-league pitches. He’s sitting 91-94 mph so far in 2026, showing some arm side run from a short, three-quarter slot. His best secondary is a low-mid 80s slider with late break and some depth. He’s generating nearly 50% whiff rate on the pitch in his four starts.

Steensma also has a sharp curveball at 76-79 mph, and a mid-80s fading changeup. All three secondaries have flashed average or better, and the California League has been no match.

Sunday was Steensma’s deepest outing. He went four frames, allowing two hits and a run. He did not walk a batter and struck out seven. For the season, he’s allowed three hits and a walk over 10 innings. He’s struck out 17 of the 34 batters he’s faced. For the mathematically challenged, that’s half. :)

The 22-year-old currently profiles as a depth starter, but his fastball has firmed up since the start of the season and there may be a little more velocity in the tank. He repeats a compact delivery pretty well, and projects to throw plenty of strikes.

Steensma is certainly on an innings limit this season that isn’t likely to allow a natural, full workload, but he’s making such quick work of Single-A so far, the Mariners may have no choice to but to challenge him in the Northwest League before he hits the end of his runway.

Seattle Mariners right-hander Bryce Miller made his second of what is likely to be several rehab assignment starts on his way back from an oblique injury. Miller was pretty good Friday for High-A Everett, but he wasn’t the only arm to shine down on the farm.

In his first start last week in Triple-A Tacoma, Miller touched 98.7 mph. He didn’t disappoint in this one, going three scoreless innings. He allowed one hit and a walk while striking out six batters.

He hit 98 numerous times and went to his slider plenty in this one, proving no match for High-A hitters. He threw 47 pitches, 35 for strikes. He generated eight whiffs, four of them on fastballs.

The club has stated Miller will likely need most or all of the 30-day limit for pitcher rehab assignments. Friday’s outing was Day 7. At a similar pace, and with some changes as he nears his return, Miller likely gets three more starts, but it’s plausible to get in four more if the outings are spaced out closer to big-league standards.

The Mariners’ 2025 first-round pick and top pitching prospect, Kade Anderson, made his fourth career start Friday and was again outstanding. For me, this was Anderson’s best start as a pro.

His outing was cut a bit short due to the weather, but he went 4.2 shutout innings, yielding one hit. He didn’t walk a batter and struck out eight. He threw 59 pitches, 39 for strikes.

Anderson sat 94-95 mph — 96 tops — with his fastball, locating well, and using the pitch to all four edges. His curveball was plus again, he mixed in an average slider, and his changeup was the best I’ve ever seen it.

When the season began, I explained on the Podcast how I wanted to see two things from Anderson in 2026: First, better fastball command. Second, a better changeup so he can use it more.

Check and check.

I also opined a few weeks back that it shouldn’t be out of the question that Anderson goes to Triple-A before he gets the call to the majors, which very well could be sometime this summer, despite the club’s current riches in the rotation, especially with Miller on track to return in May.

Thus far, Anderson has not run into much of a challenge in the Texas League, and it might behoove the Mariners to find a way to test their prized left-hander.

Once his numbers from Friday’s start hit his tally— once the suspended game becomes official — he’ll have logged 18.2 innings, allowed nine hits, one run, walked four, and fanned 30 of 68 batters faced, a 44% mark.

But it’s not the gaudy numbers, it’s how he’s doing it. Highly efficient, and with four quality pitches, at least two of which look like plus offerings. He’s pounding the zone for called strikes (54 thru four stats), and still inducing whiffs (46).

Fellow Southpaw Mason Peters (No. 13) is making his own mark early in 2026, and was at it again Friday while Anderson was finishing his gem. Peters went four innings, allowed one run on four hits, did not walk a batter, and struck out four. He threw 55 pitches, 37 strikes.

It wasn’t Peters’ best start, but he sat 92-94 mph, showed an average slider, and a plus curveball. I didn’t see many changeups in this one, but he’s flashed a promising one in prior outings. Peters’ ability to spin the baseball is his strength, and he leans into it.

Peters has some similarities to Anderson — both lefties, both with big, sharp curveballs. Peters is a little further away with the third and fourth pitch, and he doesn’t throw quite as hard, but it’s easy to see a No. 4 starter here, assuming he can throw enough strikes and find a way to extinguish right-handed batters consistently.

In four starts, the 22-year-old has allowed four runs on 11 hits in 16 frames. He’s walked three and struck out 25.

It’s been just a couple of weeks, so the sample dictates absolutely nothing, but I’ve braved the cold three times to see some players, poured over a lot of video, and asked some player development and scouting folks for thoughts.

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With the Everett AquaSox getting their season underway Friday, all four Mariners’ affiliates have started their 2026 schedules, and most of the club’s top prospects have made an appearance.

Among those who have yet to through Friday’s games:

Ryan Sloan, RHP — Makes his debut Saturday for Double-A Arkansas
Yorger Bautista, OF — Extended spring training, likely starts his season in the Arizona Complex League in a few months
Nick Becker, SS — Extended spring training, likely starts his season in ACL
Griffin Hugus, RHP — Will miss the season due to UCL surgery
Juan Rijo, OF — Extended spring training, will start his season in the DSL
Chia-Shi Shen, RHP — Extended spring training (elbow)
Leandro Romero, SS — Extended spring training, likely starts season in ACL
Teddy McGraw, RHP — Extended spring training (elbow)
Marcelo Perez, RHP — Extended spring training (forearm)

It’s worth noting Grant Knipp (DH/RHR) is expected to return later this season after having UCL surgery a year ago. He’s not currently ranked in my Top 50. Ruddy Navarro is on the same path. Don’t forget that name, he’s been my sleeper for two years.

For purposes of my in-season prospect rankings & updates moving forward, players out long-term due to injury will be removed from the equation until they return. Players must be active or on what’s believed to be a short-term IL stint to be eligible.

The most eye-popping assignment is Sloan to Double-A. He’s 19 years old, but has good stuff, is improving at a rapid rate, and is destined to pass his Travelers teammate Kade Anderson in the rankings in 2026.

The club could have justified starting both in High-A Everett, but it seems Arkansas is the appropriate challenge. It’s not about the level, it’s about the actual competition of the league.

Anderson went four scoreless in his pro debut Friday, throwing 43 of his 59 pitches for strikes, walking one and striking out six of the 18 batters he faced. He did allow five hits, but all were singles, and only a few were solidly struck. He was mostly 93-94 mph, and mixed in sliders and curveballs. He struck out the first batter he faced as a pro, making a very tough batter to strike out in Joshua Kuroda-Grauer look silly.

The Arkansas roster also boasts Lazaro Montes (No. 7), Michael Arroyo (8), Charlie Beilenson (20), Michael Morales (32), Jared Sundstrom (35), and Tyler Cleveland (42).

Arroyo hit a solo home run in this one, as did Sundstrom. Sundstrom’s was an absolute bomb.

Up in Triple-A, it’s No. 1 prospect Colt Emerson’s world, but RHRs Alex Hoppe (15), Yosver Zulueta (16), and lefty Robinson Ortiz (18) are living in it. Righty reliever Cole Wilcox (21) is in the majors at the moment and has thrown enough strikes to stay for the time being. Utility man Brock Rodden (25) is with the Rainiers, too, as is RHR Troy Taylor (27), and OF Rhylan Thomas (39). Ryan Bliss (33) started the year with the big club and is now back in Tacoma after the return of J.P.
Crawford to active duty.

It’s not a prospect-laden roster but it has a lot of potential help stewing for the parent club.

In High-A, Felnin Celesten (4), Jonny Farmelo (5), and Luke Stevenson (6) lead the cast. I was hoping for a small handful of picks from the 2025 Draft class to land with the Sox, but Hugus is hurt and out, and two of the other three were left back in Single-A to get things started. Nothing too surprising.

Right-handed reliever Lucas Kelly (17) did get to Everett, as did fellow righties Christian Little (19), Wyatt Lunsford-Shenkman (36), Brock Moore (40), Walter Ford (43), catcher Josh Caron (31), first baseman Luis Suisbel (26), and outfielder Carlos Jimenez (45).

Farmelo and Celesten each reached base twice, Stevenson singled in four trips to the plate, and Lunsford-Shenkman struck out three and two near-perfect innings out of the pen. He entered the season with just 6.1 innings under his belt after missing almost all of 2025.

I don’t expect the Mariners to be aggressive with the bats in Everett from a promotion standpoint, but a standard time frame for all of them remains within the season. The relief group could easily see Arkansas this season, too.

Outfielder Korbyn Dickerson (12) and lefty Mason Peters (13) are the top-ranked prospects on the Single-A Inland Empire roster. The 66ers also opened with catcher Grant Jay (28), right-hander Aiden Butler (30), and infielder Dervy Ventura (46).

Peters started Friday and fanned five over four frames. He allowed three runs on three hits and a walk. He was 90-93 with a pretty good breaker. He whiffed the first batter he faced in his pro career. Dickerson went yard, and Jay went 2-for-3.

Both Peters and Dickerson have a real chance to see Everett later this season, perhaps as a few of the better talents from the ACL earn their way to the Cal League.

Romero, Becker, and Bautista are names to watch in that regard, and I’d expect one or more of the club’s draft picks to fit into the mix with the 66ers.

It’s reasonable to believe as many as nine of my current Top 9 prospects in the Mariners’ system finish the year in Double-A or higher, including the majors.

Emerson Hancock has entered the chat. The former first-round pick has been overshadowed by the more established quintet the Seattle Mariners have deployed in the starting rotation the past couple of years, but the right-hander stole the spotlight in the opening series with a six-inning game.

Hancock went six no-hit frames, walked one, and struck out a career-high nine, and it was anything but smoke and mirrors. He sat 93-94 mph (up to 96 early) with his four-seamer, which never looked better than it did in primetime Sunday night at T-Mobile Park, and for me that’s where it all starts.

Live Postgame Shows at Baseball Things

Hancock came out of Georgia with questions about his fastball shape, which put a lot of pressure on velocity, command, and his secondary stuff. Sunday, we saw a completely different heater. The carry and life on the pitch kept Guardians hitters from squaring it up. The spin rate was up to 2538 RPM, an increase from 2389 a year ago. Spin rate on a four-seam fastball dictates its vertical movement, the rising effect. We see it a lot with George Kirby, Bryan Woo, and Bryce Miller.

Hancock threw his four-seamer 53% of the time in this game, generating nine whiffs on 37 swings (24%). The hardest exit velocity on the pitch was under 80 mph. He threw 69% first-pitch strikes with it.

Hancock also deployed the slider he began working on last spring but rarely brought it out in games. It’s a 77-80 mph slurve — curveball velocity, two-plane slider break — and his feel for it Sunday was a repeat of his spring. On 25 pitches, Hancock induced seven swings on the slider, three of them whiffs. He threw just five two-seamers and five changeups, but both are important pitches for him moving forward.

The value in the zone Hancock generated with the four-seamer was the difference from a pitch standpoint, but his reinvention goes well beyond.

It’s just one start, but his vertical and horizontal releases from Sunday contrasts with the first few years of his career, and hep him create deception to go with the movement on his pitches, a key component.

Vertical release is simply how far off the ground the ball is when it leaves the pitcher’s hand:

Horizontal release measures how far east-west a pitcher’s release is. For a right-hander such as Hancock, the release is on the third-base side of the mound and toward third baseball. As you can see, Hancock’s horizontal release has crept out further from the pitching slab, creating a different angle, and in start No. 1 of 2026, all of his pitch type show a remarkably-consistent release, helping to avoid tipping pitches while generating the sharper pitch angle:

Hancock also is using a lower arm slot. Arm slot is essentially the path of the arm through release, while vertical and horizontal release metrics are a result of arm angle:

These are significant differences in mechanics and they help explain why Hancock was able to get swings and misses and generate the kinds of in-zone value from his arsenal, particularly the four-seamer. It’s repeatable to a significant degree, too, reliant mostly on Hancock throwing strikes, staying out of the middle of the zone, getting ahead, and executing secondary offerings. At some point he’s going to need his changeup.

Hancock threw 97 pitches, 62 strikes, and generated six groundball outs versus just two in the air. He consistently got back into counts with quality pitch

es, never yielding to the batter, and he didn’t miss his spots much.

The performance was ace-like, but the repeatable execution here is more important — and Hancock isn’t done evolving. Seattle could be looking at another impact starting pitcher in the No. 6 overall pick from the 2020 Draft.

The 2026 MLB season is upon us after dozens of roster moves and months of predictions and projections.

Let’s have some fun with Opening Day Power Rankings. As the season progresses, we’ll tune up the fun here with monthly updates

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are the defending champs and on paper are even better than last season after adding Kyle Tucker and Edwin Diaz to the mix. But they’ll also get more of Shohei Ohtani the pitcher, presumably a better version of Roki Sasaki, and a solid chance for better production from young hitters Andy Pages and Dalton Rushing.

Key Player: Ohtani, RHP

The more Ohtani can pitch, the better the Dodgers will be.

2. Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays lost Bo Bichette but added Kazuma Okamoto, Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce, and Max Scherzer, should get a lot more of rookie righty Trey Yesavage, though they’ll have to hope his early-season shoulder injury doesn’t keep him out too long. They took the Dodgers to seven games a year ago and had two shots to clinch their first title in 30-plus years, and this year’s roster is better.

Key Player: Yesavage, RHP

First, the rookie needs to get healthy, but if he’s a 160-inning mid-rotation value, the Jays could separate themselves in the division.

3. Seattle Mariners

Seattle had their best postseason run ever in 2025, and there are numerous paths to a better 2026. It all starts with the rotation, where four of the five dealt with injuries a year ago, but the Mariners did bring back Josh Naylor and added Jose Ferrer to the bullpen and Brendan Donovan to the infield mix.

The club’s advantages over some other teams in the Top 10 include the chance they get significant help from the farm system in more ways than one. They can use it for trades, but Colt Emerson and Kade Anderson may break through and assist Seattle to another division title and a chance at their first World Series. They also have more players trending up than the majority of the American League.

Key Player: Cole Young, 2B

If Young shows he can hold down the everyday job at second base, it not only catapults an otherwise strong lineup into the Top 5 in baseball, it makes the deadline goals pretty easy for the front office.

4. New York Yankees

I think the Bombers have more potential questions than not only the Jays but also the Boston Red Sox, but also more upside, particularly with the rotation. They expect to get Gerrit Cole back in a month or less, Carlos Rodon is on a schedule landing him back on the mound by May, and Max Fried returns for Year 2 in pinstripes. They’ll also get Cam Schlittler from the get-go.

They may have a weak spot or two in the bullpen, but the lineup should be fine with Cody Bellinger back, a second full season of Ben Rice, and the chance Jasson Dominguez gets back and finds his footing. And the Yankees have Aaron Judge.

Key Player: David Bednar, RHR

The Yankees need someone to step up and shut it down, and Bednar has done that before in Pittsburgh.

5. Philadelphia Phillies

The Phils are getting a bit long in the tooth with 12 of their ultimate 26-man roster members over 30, including Zack Wheeler, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, and Kyle Schwarber. But they are getting some youth infused into the roster with right-hander Andrew Painter and outfielder Justin Crawford. Philly won 96 games a year ago and look like the best roster in the division again, despite the moves made by the New York Mets.

Key Player: Wheeler, RHP

If Wheeler gets back to his No. 1 starter form, the Phillies will hold an edge in the East. Without such a development, it’s more wide open.

6. Boston Red Sox

Boston went out and added Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez to the rotation, Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin to the lineup, and will have Roman Anthony from Day 1. It’s a deeper staff and overall roster than a year ago, and if they don’t have issues keeping the rotation healthy they could win the division. Boston, however, may be one hitter shy, depending on how some young players show early.

Key Player: Contreras, 1B

While Contreras will play first base and perhaps some DH, he’s essentially the replacement for Alex Bregman, who bolted for the money of the Chicago Cubs. He has been a steady bat for 10 years, but he’s also 33 and tends to miss 25-40 games a year. They need his steady presence.

7. New York Mets

The names on the roster look nice and shiny after a busy winter. Francisco Lindor. Juan Soto. Bo Bichette. Luis Robert Jr. Freddy Peralta. Marcus Semien. Devin Williams. But the pieces to the puzzle don’t necessarily fit as well on an actual baseball field as they do on a fantasy roster. They’ll be leaning on two rookie starting pitchers, and hoping for a healthy year from Clay Holmes to avoid major rotation issues, but they are healthy now and look like a legit contender on paper.

Key Player: Nolan McLean, RHP

McLean looked terrific in eight starts last season, and if he picks up where he left off, the only questions left will be how easily he wins the ROY and how high he finishes in the Cy Young vote. But Peralta’s 2025 may be more the outlier than anything, so a potential fall in production from him means more ask of the rest of the rotation.

8. Chicago Cubs

The Cubs don’t have the starting pitching on paper, but they do have depth, and the upside with Cade Horton and Edward Cabrera is more than interesting. The same can be said for the club’s bullpen. The lineup should be among the league’s elite, however, starting with Bregman and Pete Crow-Armstrong. There may not be an easy out in the lineup, including at catcher where Carson Kelly and Miguel Amaya loom.

Key Player: Justin Steele, LHP

Steele is the Cubs’ ace and figures to return in the first half of the season. If he’s vintage Steele, the Cubs are in business and every team in the NL should be on notice.

9. Detroit Tigers

I’d like the Tigers more if they did anything to add a veteran hitter to their lineup over the winter. They added Framber Valdez, brought back Justin Verlander, and already employ the best pitcher in baseball in Tarik Skubal. Detroit finished No. 11 in runs a year ago, No. 12 in wRC+, No. 14 in OBP, and struck out more than all but three clubs... and their lone addition to the lineup is rookie Kevin McGonigle. But this club is dangerous and should win the division again.

Key Player: McGonigle

The kid has a chance to answer the question I have about the Tigers, thanks to a plus hit tool. If not, Detroit may again be among the more inconsistent offenses in the league.

10. Baltimore Orioles

The O’s have among the most talented roster in baseball, but there are still some rotation questions, and they will need some of their young hitters to step up, especially with Jordan Westburg out until sometime in May. But Jackson Holliday, too, is out to start the season, as is Heston Kjerstad.

Key Player: Adley Rutschman, C

Rutschman was worth 11.1 fWAR combined in his first two seasons and has since fallen off a cliff. He posted a 91 wRC+ in 2025, and his left-handed swing fell to pieces. If Rutschman rebounds, the Orioles have another bat in their lineup and could play Sam Basallo at DH or 1B, and the club also could potentially move Rutschman for arm help. But he has to hit well up to that point.

11. San Diego Padres

The Padres’ rotation is unlovable, they have seven arms on the IL, and it was essentially a middle-of-the-pack offense in 2025, ranking 18th in runs and 13th in wRC+. They also have the most overrated GM in the game putting square pegs in round holes. Yu Darvish is out for the year - at least - and the farm has little help on the way. Still, the Friars are probably the second best team in the NL West, so they’ll probably be in the Wild Card hunt.

Key Player: Walker Buehler, RHP

We’ve seen Buehler dominate. Back in 2019 and 2021 with the Dodgers, he was among the best starters in the NL. Anything near that in 2026 and the Padres could be a top 8 team.

12. Kansas City Royals

They’ll need a little magic dust, but the Royals have a chance to be good. Cole Ragans has a chance to be a true No. 1 like he showed some of in 2024, and the Royals have some rotation depth to battle with the rest of the division. They also have Bobby Witt Jr., and my rookie of the year pick, catcher Carter Jensen. Vinnie Pasquantino found his swing again in 2025, and Jac Caglianone has made a few adjustments that should help him contribute... and the sky is the limit for him at the plate. Isaac Collins is a nice pickup, and Starling Marte should help versus lefties.

Key Player: Jonathan India, 2B

India’s first year in KC did not go well - he slashed .233/.323/.346 for a wRC+ of 89. The Royals need India or Michael Massey to find a viable level of production, or they’ll be in the market for second base help.

13. Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers get the nod here in a cluster of about 5-7 teams I don’t like all that much, and had a tough time typing out their name after No. 10... so here, I didn’t. Milwaukee does boast one of the best catchers in the game, will have Andrew Vaughn for the full year, and Jackson Chourio may be ready to explode. The names lining up to make starts is a bit uninspiring, but the Brewers have a recent track record of figuring those things out, and they have help on the way.

Key Player: Brandon Woodruff, RHP

Woodruff missed all of 2024, but returned last season and was excellent in 12 starts, posting a 32% strikeout rate and pounding the zone. He didn’t have all of his velocity back, and still doesn’t appear to, but his four-seamer, cutter, and changeup were nearly unhittable. A repeat for 175-plus innings, and the Brewers have their replacement for Peralta.

14. Houston Astros

I seem to be a little higher on the Astros than most, perhaps because I believe in Tatsuya Imai and Mike Burrows enough to see them sustaining their run of contending seasons. If they can keep Yordan Alvarez off the IL, the lineup has a chance to be pretty good, particularly if they find ways to get their best hitters in the lineup at the same time regularly. The bullpen has a chance to be very good again if healthy.

Key Player: Cam Smith, RF

Smith flashed in 2025, but struggled mightily after June. All the tools are there for a .260/.330/.450 season, but he had massive issues hitting the four-seamer and slider in his rookie season. If he hits, the Astros aren’t going away.

15. Texas Rangers

If the Rangers stayed entirely healthy all season they might win 95 games. Alas, three of their four best players - Corey Seager, Jacob deGrom, and Nathan Eovaldi - have an ongoing battle with injuries. Their ace, deGrom, stayed healthy in 2025, so that’s something, but it might just be a sign he’s due. He’s also 38 now. The addition of Brandon Nimmo is an underrated one, and MacKenzie Gore helps them cover when Eovaldi/deGrom are out.

There’s still room for more from Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker, but tough to count on them at this point. The signing of Jordan Montgomery could prove a good one with the lefty eyeing a July return. The bullpen is the club’s clearest weak spot, but the lineup has a chance to improve with Nimmo, Andrew McCutchen, and the chance we see breakouts from Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter. The club’s top prospect, infielder Sebastian Walcott, will miss the entire season, but righty Jose Corniell would be ready to help on the mound as early as mid-season.

Key Player

Seager

The shortstop is a steadying presence in the lineup and in the field, but hasn’t exceeded 123 starts in a season since 2022, his first in Texas. When he’s healthy, he rakes; when he’s out of the lineup, the Rangers struggle.

16. Arizona Diamondbacks

They’ve patched together a rotation that will be without Merrill Kelly for the first few weeks, and Corbin Burnes until at least mid-July, if not longer. The good news is Ketel Marte is healthy, Corbin Carroll’s wrist issues seem behind him, and the NL’s second most valuable player in 2025, SS Geraldo Perdomo, is also back. If the D-Backs can find a path to consistent, average pitching, they might surprise some people.

Key Player: Zac Gallen, RHP

He’s starting the year as the Snakes’ No. 1 starter, but he’s coming off the worst season of his career. Arizona needs vintage Gallen to compete for a playoff spot.

17. Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians’ margin for error is thin, but they have a chance to pull off another Wild Card run if they can keep their pitching healthy, and find a legitimate No. 3. The duo of Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams at the top of the rotation has a shot to be really good, and the bullpen still boasts enough quality and back-end impact to win a lot of close games.

The lineup is anchored by Jose Ramirez and ignited by Steven Kwan, but they are going to need a few bats to step up. Kyle Manzardo is a candidate, and Rhys Hoskins should help, at least against lefties.

Key Player: Chase DeLauter, OF

The dude can hit, but hasn’t been able to stay healthy, managing just 138 games in three seasons as a pro. He’ll get his shot in the big leagues to start 2026 and could be the kind of catalyst the Guardians need.

18. Atlanta Braves

On paper, this is a top 8 team, but only if you ignore the injury notes. Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep are out for the year. Spencer Strider is on the IL to start the season. AJ Smith-Shawyer isn’t likely to return until August. Joey Wentz tore his ACL and he will also miss the year. The good news is Chris Sale is healthy and still among the elite starters in baseball. But the issues don’t stop there.

Ha-Seong Kim had surgery on his hand and will be out until at least late April, and Sean Murphy is expected to be out until May. The club made only marginal improvements to the lineup, including Mike Yastrzemski, Mauricio Dubon, and Jonah Heim.

Key Player: Strider

Strider’s return from injury in 2025 went OK, but a fully healthy version, even if for just 25-28 starts, goes a long way toward the Braves’ postseason hopes.

19. San Francisco Giants

I haven’t a clue what Buster Posey and the Giants are trying to accomplish. They spent big in the trade for Rafael Devers, signed Willy Adames to a large deal, acquired Robbie Ray even before he’s healthy, and handed Jung-Hoo Lee $100 million. They did little to add impact to the rotation this winter, and will be without key reliever Randy Rodriguez all season, and rotation candidate Hayden Birdsong will miss 2026 with elbow surgery.

The addition of Harrison Bader will help the club’s outfield defense and overall athleticism, but asking him to repeat his 2025 offensive output is a bit much. Luis Arraez could help offensively, but there’s nothing for Posey and new manager Tony Vitiello to hang their hats on. There’s no identity.

Key Player: Bryce Eldridge, 1B

Eldridge is the Giants’ top prospect and may break into the big leagues in the first half of 2026. He’s the kind of bat that can change a lineup.

20. Pittsburgh Pirates

It’s not likely a playoff roster, but it’s no longer a laughing stock. The Pirates went out and added some proven talent, namely Ryan O’Hearn and Marcell Ozuna, and traded for Brandon Lowe. That trio should be enough to get the Pirates into the Top 20 or so in runs - they ranked No. 28 a year ago, and posted the second-worst wRC+ in baseball (82). The rotation after Skenes is young with a lot of upside, though righty Jared Jones will miss the first few months of the season.

Pittsburgh added Gregory Soto to what might be a solid relief group. Overall, a .500 season is more than realistic here, and if they get more out of Bubba Chandler than expected and top prospect Konnor Griffin runs into no walls once he arrives, that number could turn into 85 in a hurry.

Key Player: Bryan Reynolds, OF

With the veteran additions to the lineup, Reynolds finding his groove again could be a game-changer, especially considering he has five years left on the eight-year deal he signed prior to the 2023 season. He fell to average last season after five straight above-average full seasons.

21. Athletics

The A’s probably won’t pitch well in 2026, but they hit in 2025 and the lineup looks pretty shiny right now. Nick Kurtz for a full season, Jacob Wilson, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, and Tyler Soderstrom are back, it’s year 2 for Lawrence Butler, and veteran Jeff McNeil was added to the mix. If this club had an average rotation they’d rank at least 10 spots higher. After Luis Severino, the A’s have four back-end starters, and the pitching help from the system probably isn’t going to arrive until later this season or early next. The bullpen has a chance to be solid, though.

Key Player: Brent Rooker, OF

Rooker is the veteran in the middle of the order who takes attention and pressure off the younger hitters.

22. Cincinnati Reds

Hunter Greene is out for about half of 2026, Nick Lodolo won’t miss a lot of time, but he won’t make his season debut for at least a couple of weeks. This is not a good start for the Reds’ chances. Cincinnati’s lineup was below average last season, posting a 92 wRC+, and the club’s response was to sign Nathaniel Lowe and Eugenio Suarez. Both could and probably will help. But the upside play of Matt McLain, top prospect Sal Stewart, and Noelvi Marte could give the Reds a chance to stay in the mix, and the bullpen has a chance to be pretty solid.

Key Player: McLain

He’s flashed the ability to hit for some average and power, can play defense at second, and run the bases. He has to put the ball in play more, however, and get back to a line-drive approach. He hasn’t hit on the road much at all, including a 56 wRC+ a year ago.

23. Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have their ace back. Carson Williams may be ready to take over at shortstop full time, that bullpen has a shot to be outstanding, as long as Edwin Uceta’s stay on the IL is short. They may struggle to score runs consistently, but Junior Caminero and Yandy Diaz will hit, Jonathan Aranda projects well after his 2025 campaign, and if Cedric Mullins has anything left in the tank the Rays may fight their way into a .500 or better season. The rotation depth may be their backbreaker, though.

Key Player: Drew Rasmussen, RHP

Ras is coming off a terrific 2025 despite below-average strikeout rates. He can get some ground balls, but his HR/FB rate spiked last year, and his swinging strike rate plummeted to the lowest of his career. The Rays could be a disaster if they don’t get quality innings out of Rasmussen.

24. Minnesota Twins

The Twins took a few steps back the past year or so, and moved some pieces at the deadline to help set them up for 2027 and 2028. The wins aren’t going to come in 2026 much, though, but there’s a lot to tune in and watch, including ace Joe Ryan. Taj Bradley and Mick Abel join the rotation in hopes to be part of the next playoff rotation for the Twins, but this is probably just another season when the club moves veterans for long-term answers, potentially including Ryan.

Key Player: Royce Lewis, 3B

This is all about his trade value. :)

25. Los Angeles Angels

The Angels aren’t going to be good, but there’s more to like about this club versus a year ago. The bullpen has a better chance to compete with the additions of Drew Pomeranz and Jordan Romano, plus the eventual returns of Kirby Yates and Robert Stephenson, both of whom are on the IL to begin the season. Jose Soriano is a breakout candidate in the rotation, and once Grayson Rodriguez gets back they’ll have more upside to chase.

Offensively, they’re missing pieces, but Zach Neto, Nolan Schanuel, Mike Trout, Jo Adell, and Christian Moore are a decent place to start for a club looking to start climbing north.

Key Player: Logan O’Hoppe, C

O’Hoppe flashed signs of all-star level production in 2023 and 2024, but the wagon ride was too bumpy a year ago when he posted a 72 wRC+. Contact was a problem in general, but it’s mostly about breaking balls (.156 AVG, 42% whiff). If he gets back to average or better, the Halos lineup might look viable.

26. Miami Marlins

The upside here could get the Fish back into the Top 20, especially if ace Sandy Alcantara gets back to form and Eury Perez stays healthy. The Marlins have the makings of a pretty good bullpen with Pete Fairbanks, Anthony Bender, Andrew Nardi, and Calvin Faucher. It’s too bad Ronny Henriquez will miss the year, because this could have been a great bullpen. At the plate, Miami will lean heavily on Kyle Stowers, who was great a year ago as a late-bloomer (28), posting a 149 wRC+ in 117 games. Jakob Marsee and Heriberto Hernandez were good in partial seasons. After that, it’s a lot of question marks and marginal performers, but there’s upside in Augustin Ramirez and the newly-acquired Owen Caissie.

Key Player: Max Meyer, RHP

He’s been hurt a ton since the Draft and didn’t look good in 12 starts a year ago, but the stuff was nasty this spring, and the former No. 3 overall pick is ready for the start of the season. If he can pitch with some impact and get to 120 or more innings, he could help the Marlins’ rotation creep above average.

27. Chicago White Sox

For the first time in a while, the Pale Hose have multiple talents on which to build their next winner, starting with catcher Kyle Teel and infielder Colson Montgomery. There’s more talent coming from the system, too. The playoffs are still a few years away and they’ll need a lot more pitching, but you can see light at the end of the tunnel.

Key Player: Munetaka Murakami, 1B/DH

Murakami isn’t likely to be around the next time the Sox are actually good, but if he hits, he supports a developmental environment in the majors and serves as a valuable trade chip next summer.

28. St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have torn it down, shipping out veterans over the winter for young players, a fresh start with payroll, and new leadership. They did well in those trades, but this is going to take a while to get back. The fun part for Cards fans is they don’t have to wait for the future to show up at Busch. JJ Wetherholt will join Masyn Winn and Alec Burleson on the club’s infield in 2026. Top pitching prospects Liam Doyle and Brandon Clarke are likely a year away, and Jurrangelo Cijntje could see the bigs by September. It will be lean for a bit, but there’s a path to something solid in 2028.

Key Player: Ivan Herrera, DH

Herrera is a budding star, putting up a 137 wRC+ in 107 games in 2025 after a strong 72-game showing in 2024. He’s 25 years old and ready to roll out a 150-game season where 30 homers is a distinct possibility. Such a breakout might suggest he’s either a core member of the next winning team in St. Louis or part of a massive trade that returns the kind of haul that tops off a rebuild.

29. Washington Nationals

The Nationals would rank higher here if I believed they were done trading players away. I don’t, so this is me projecting the club gets worse, still, before it gets better. It probably starts with CJ Abrams and could include Keibert Ruiz and James Wood before it’s all said and done. The Nats’ pitching situation is the most dire for the foreseeable future, even including their farm system.

Key Player: Ruiz, C

Ruiz is signed through 2030 with two club options prior to the 2023 season, but has gone backwards since. For the club’s sake, Ruiz needs to figure it out so they can trade him.

30. Colorado Rockies

I’d like to see someone like Theo Epstein take over the Rockies to just get this club up off the mat. You can win in Denver, it’s been done before, but the roster building approach has been archaic, limiting the Rockies to five playoff appearances since their inception in 1993. They have not won a playoff game since 2009, which was also the last time they had a .500 or better season. Nothing the club did over the winter lends confidence they’ll be anything but really bad again.

Key Player: Hunter Goodman, C

Goodman is the Rockies’ best player, and he’s headed for free agency after the 2027 season. This could be his last run, and he’s one of the better catchers in baseball. At 26, with two years of control remaining, he could fetch a nice haul.

The Houston Astros have done a pretty good job the last few years remaining competitive as they lose elite free agents (Gerrit Cole, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker) at the same time their farm system runs dry.

Do they have enough starting pitching? Can Yordan Alvarez stay healthy and reignite the lineup that slid to No. 12 in runs in 2025?

If the answer to either is no, does GM Dana Brown have the ammo to land impact help over the summer? That one’s tough to see.

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Additions

Mike Burrows, RHP
Tatsuya Imai, RHP
Christian Vazquez, C
Joey Loperfido, OF

Subtractions

Framber Valdez, LHP
Victor Caratini, C
Craig Kimbrel, RHR
Mauricio Dubón, UT
Ramon Urias, UT
Chas McCormick, OF

Key Injury Notes

Closer Josh Hader starts the season on the IL with a biceps issue. The injuries are beginning to pile up a bit with the lefty. Right-hander Ronel Blanco has an elbow issue that will push him to the IL to start 2026, and righty Enyel De Los Santos has a knee problem that will prevent him starting the season just yet.

Nate Pearson, Hayden Wesneski, Bennett Sousa, and Brandon Walter will also miss the start of the season. All of the above, expect for Walter, are on the 15-day variety.

Outfielder Zach Dezenzo is on the 10-day IL with an elbow issue, serving as the lone non-pitching injury right now for the Astros.

Cristian Javier starts the season healthy and ready to go after missing most of 2024 and 2025 (15 starts combined). Lance McCullers Jr. is also active to kick off 2026.

Payroll

237M / 26-man
$241M / 40-man

The Astros are carrying a hefty payroll thanks to the additions of Christian Walker, Correa, Imai over the past year or so, but it’s worth noting the club shakes free from McCullers after this season, and Javier after next, clearing nearly $40 million from the books.

Unfortunately, Correa adds $65 million in salary over the next four years, $46 million of that over the next two. Walker is owed $40 million over these next two seasons.

Houston’s payroll health is running on fumes.

Top Prospects

Xavier Neyens, 3B
Ethan Frey, OF
Brice Matthews, 2B
Walker Janek, C
Kevin Alvarez, OF

The Astros haven’t developed much impact the last handful of years outside of Hunter Brown. Four of their top 5 prospects are at least a year and a half away, and their top two (Neyens, Alvarez) are probably three-plus years from the majors.

There’s not a single over-50 OFP prospect within two years of the big leagues in their entire system, but Matthews has twitch and bat speed to flash as early as this season.

Analysis

The Astros may be an example of a club who isn’t as good as the sum of their parts, but to buy that one that has to believe they’ll stay healthier than a year ago, and see Imaya as a mid-rotation performer.

By themselves, neither may be too much to ask. But combined it’s probably a stretch.

Add in the club’s challenge of getting their best hitters into the lineup together and the lack of a farm system capable of helping much on the field or via trade and we might be seeing the official end of the Astros’ run.

Alvarez alone can make an enormous difference, however, and the upside of the rotation is pretty intriguing with everyone healthy to start the year and their ace primed for a run at the Cy Young.

Still, the club is asking a lot of Alvarez to stay off the IL, Correa to do the same while bouncing back at the plate. But it’s also a lot to ask of Cam Smith, and perhaps even Matthews, and others to help make up for the fading production of Walker and Jose Altuve, and the chance the club’s pitching staff takes a step back.

I like them for more than 81 wins, but it’s difficult to see 90 without some luck and unforeseen developments.

The Athletics are 255–393 over the past four season, including two 100-plus loss seasons. They last made the postseason 2018-20, and have qualified 11 times in the 2000s, but it’s mostly been grouped together and sandwiched around rebuilds.

Might the current wave of young talent and the upcoming new ballpark support a more sustainable winner? Probably not, but they do seem primed to contend relatively soon after improving from 60 and 50 wins in 2022 and 2023 to 69 in 2024, and 76 a year ago.

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Additions

Scott Barlow, RHR
Aaron Civale, RHS
Mark Leiter Jr., RHR
Jeff McNeil, 2B

Subtractions

JJ Bleday, OF
Luis Urias, IF
Gio Urshela, IF
Sean Newcomb, LHR
Jose Leclerc, RHR

Key Injury Notes

The A’s are starting their season pretty darned healthy. Right-hander Gunnar Hoglund is on the IL, but other than that the club is full go, including veteran Jeff McNeil.

Payroll

$95M / 26-man
$97M / 40-man

Top Prospects

Leo De Vries, SS
Wei-En Lin, LHP
Gage Jump, LHP
Jamie Arnold, LHP
Henry Bolte, OF

De Vries is among the top 10 prospects in baseball and has a chance to force his way into the majors in 2026. Most of the club’s top arms — where they are weakest in the big leagues right now — should arrive by the end of 2027, perhaps giving the club a viable shot at a 90-plus win roster.

Bolte is a below-average hitter, but has power, can play defense, throw, and run, and he probably is among the first of the Athletics’ top prospects to get the nod if they call for help.

It’s not a good system, but they have impact at the top and a strong group of young talent in the big leagues already with Jacob Wilson, Nick Kurtz, and Tyler Soderstrom leading the way.

Analysis

The Athletics have a pretty good chance to break .500 for the first time since 2021, but it’ll largely depend on how much pitching they get from this group. The A’s finished ranked No. 27, 24, 27, and 28 in the four major runs allowed metrics. The bullpen should be better from the start, though, and the rotation has more upside.

The lineup finished No. 12 in baseball last season and could be even better in 2026, so buckle up for some slugfests in Sacramento in 2026, where Sutter Health Park posted a 108 Park Factor last season, second only to Coors Field in Denver.

The win projection here ranges from 77-82, but I don’t love the club’s chances to break through on the right side of .500 without some meaningful growth in the rotation. After Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs, the A’s are asking Civale, Jacob Lopez, and Luis Morales to take big steps forward.

They’re going to be a nuisance, but competing won’t come until the rotation has more to offer.

The Los Angeles Angels haven’t had a winning season since Seattle Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto led the Halos to back-to-back winning seasons in 2014 (98-64) and 2015 (85-77). They have one playoff appearance in Mike Trout’s now 15-year career, and haven’t won a playoff game since the year they drafted him.

In other words, the Angels are bad and have been for a long time. Worse, there’s really no end in sight, despite some improvements over the winter.

Additions

Alek Manoah, RHP
Grayson Rodriguez, RHS
Jordan Romano, RHR
Kirby Yates, RHR
Drew Pomeranz, LHR
Vaughn Grissom, IF
Josh Lowe, OF

Subtractions

Taylor Ward, OF
Anthony Rendon, 3B
Luis Rengifo, IF
LaMonte Wade Jr., 1B/DH
Kyle Hendricks, RHS
Kenley Jansen, RHR

Key Injury Notes

This all starts with Mike Trout, who has played under 50% of the Angels’ games since the start of the 2021 season. He’s now 34 years old, and his performance has faded from elite to simply good, including a career low 120 wRC+ in 2025.

Yoan Moncada is also a frequent visitor to the ILand, playing no more than 92 games in a season since he played 104 in 2022.

Rodriguez’s health will be of note until it’s not. He missed all of 2025 with both a lat injury and bone chips in his elbow, and has suffered ‘dead arm’ this spring after making four Cactus League starts. He’s a potential major part of the club’s rotation.

If he can get in 25-30 starts and at least repeat his performance level from 2023 in Baltimore, it’s a huge boost for Halos staff who produced the third-fewest starter innings in baseball last season, and the worst results from a runs allowed standpoint in the American League.

Newly-acquired outfielder Josh Lowe has been on the IL six times over three full seasons, all in the last two. There’s been nothing major to rob him of massive portions of any season, though, it’s more a group of freak or nagging problems.

Payroll

$175M / 26-man
$178M / 40-man

Including a buyout of Rendon’s contract, the Angels rank No. 18 in projected payroll for 2026, third in the division, about $18 million higher than Seattle, $80 million higher than the Athletics, and just under the Rangers’ $185 million range.

The current projected commitment is the least the Angels have spent since 2015. They totaled over $200 million to open 2025 and finished with a CBT number over $220 million.

Whether this means there’s room for significant additions or not remains to be seen, but their payroll health has grown, and the buyout of Rendon will help them starting next season.

Top Prospects

Tyler Bremner, RHP
Ryan Johnson, RHP
Johnny Slawinski, LHP
George Klassen, RHP

Like many others, I’m not a fan at all of how the Angels have gone about the draft, and the results support the masses, not the club. They got cute in 2021, selecting 20 pitchers in the 20-round draft, and have very little to show for it.

They did get SS Zach Neto in Round 1 in 2022, but over-drafted Nolan Schanuel in 2023 with the likes of Kyle Teel, Bryce Eldridge, Colt Emerson, Thomas White, and Kevin McGonigle on the board.

The jury is still out on their last two classes, though technically they already have two major leaguers from that draft in 2B Christian Moore and Johnson, but the farm is anything but well-stocked and may have just one top 150 prospect (Bremner) — where Johnson still qualifies.

Bremner could be a quick study as a strike-throwing power arm with a plus fastball and the best changeup in the draft, though he’s yet to take on the kind of workload that might suggest he can skate to the majors this season. We know the Angels like to rush players, so who knows on that front.

I believe Bremner’s ceiling will go only as far as his breaking ball can take him. There are some similarities here to Mariners first-round pick Emerson Hancock (2020).

Outfielder Nelson Rada, right-handers Chris Cortez and George Klassen, infielder Denzer Guzman, and lefty Sam Aldegheri have a chance to help this season, with Cortez perhaps the most likely to break through early as a pro as a power reliever, assuming the Angels transition him back to his college role.

Analysis

In 2025, LAA ranked No. 28 in runs allowed and No. 25 in runs scored. They did nothing well, including defense (-45 DRS, No. 30, -54 OAA, No. 30), and their 72-90 win-loss record was probably lucky (65-97 pythag).

There are things to like about the club’s acquisitions over the winter from a progress standpoint, but it’s difficult to believe in the overall roster enough to suggest a playoff run.

The bullpen should be deeper and better, and with some health luck, the rotation has a better chance to compete with the strong rotations in the division. The rotation depth is already in trouble, however, as there are questions about 60% of the projected opening day, from injury (Rodriguez) to performance (Rodriguez, Manoah, Reid Detmers in his return from the bullpen).

The projection systems like the Angels for around 72-75 wins, and I’d suggest a ceiling around 80-83. Even at 83 wins, they’re not a legitimate Wild Card contender, and the chances they reach that ceiling are dependent on a lot of injury luck and production from a large group of unproven talent.

Again in 2026, the Angels are likely to end up closer to the cellar in the west than to the top of the division, and the smart bet right now is a last-place finish.

Mariners Consigliere

AL West Primer: Angels

The first segment of our AL West primer series focuses on a club that experienced its tenth consecutive losing campaign in 2025…

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2 months ago · 5 likes · Luke Arkins

The 2025 season was both disappointing and unsurprising for the Texas Rangers. The club half-assed an effort to compete, entering the season relying on unproven and high-risk talents to deliver, and, shocker, the results was mediocrity at its finest.

This season could be different, thanks to three key acquisitions from the National League East, but it also could simply be more of the same if they don’t happen to get much luck from the IL gods.

Additions

Brandon Nimmo, OF
MacKenzie Gore, LHP
Jordan Montgomery, LHP
Danny Jansen, C
Alexis Diaz, RHP
Jakob Junis, RHP
Andrew McCutchen, OF/DH

Subtractions

Marcus Semien, 2B
Adolis Garcia, RF
Tyler Mahle, RHP
Hoby Milner, LHP
Patrick Corbin, LHP
Shawn Armstrong, RHP

Key Injury Notes

Top prospect Sebastian Walcott will miss the season after undergoing UCL surgery. The prognosis is 5-6 months, technically, but five gets him to July, six to August, and all that lost development time likely means Walcott’s MLB debut is pushed back to next summer.

Nathan Eovaldi, 36, starts Year 2 of a three-year. $75 million deal after missing 10 starts last season with a sports hernia. He was very good in his 22 outings, however.

Jacob deGrom, 38 in June, made it through 30 starts in 2025, the first time since 2019. He wasn’t the best pitcher in baseball, but he did sit 96-98 mph and was among the Top 20 starters in baseball.

Corey Seager will be 32 in April and hasn’t played more than 123 games since 2022. He’s a tremendous hitter and more-than-capable shortstop when healthy, but he missed eight weeks in 2025, five weeks in 2024, six in 2023, and two and a half months in 2021.

If he could manage 140 games, the club’s anchor bat will be able to serve its purpose.

Payroll

$186M / 40-man
$183M / 26-man

The Rangers went from bigger payroll to smaller spending, and instead used their farm system to land help in Gore. They have a lot of cash heading out to injury-risk labeled players (Seager, deGrom, Eovaldi), and another $26 million to their backup catcher, swing man, and platoon DH.

Top Prospects

Jose Corniell, RHP
Caden Scarborough, RHP
AJ Russell, RHP

Lots of arms coming up for the Rangers in the next few years — at least six of their best 10 prospects are pitchers, all right-handed, and Josh Owens is a potential two-way player, though more of a bat than an arm right now.

Walcott had a chance to break through to the big leagues in 2026 prior to the injury, likely playing third base. His presence and a 2027 timeline suggest the likes of Jung are on the hot seat, but the runway is clear for a full season to prove his value as an everyday answer.

It was posed to me in March the idea the Rangers might try and trade Seager to pair some payroll and clear space for both Josh Jung and Walcott. Seager is owed $189 million through his age-37 season (6 years), however, and has a partial no-trade clause, greatly limiting trade opportunities, especially without the Rangers eating a significant part of the remaining cash due.

Analysis

The margin for error is thin for the Rangers in every area of their club. They cannot afford to lose any of their three top starters — who are as good a trio as any in the American League — and they’re relying on Seager’s steady presence and a potential breakout from Wyatt Langford to keep the lineup churning.

Nimmo will help — he’s an upgrade to Semien in the lineup — but they are going to need a few others to step up to stay afloat in the division. Josh Jung and Evan Carter have the chops, but can they stay healthy and produce with consistency?

Injuries could easily destroy their season (70-75 wins), and while full health probably keeps them in the playoff hunt (84-89 wins), that’s not a wager anyone should be making.

More on the Texas Rangers

Mariners Consigliere

AL West Primer: Rangers

Our AL West primer series has already covered the Angels, Athletics, and Astros. This brings us to Seattle’s fourth division rival - the Rangers…

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2 months ago · 3 likes · Luke Arkins

Jeff Wilson's Texas Rangers Newsletter

A look at everyone's favorite rebuilding baseball club.

The Newberg Report

Breaking down all things Texas Rangers — future, present, and past — since 1998.

By Jamey Newberg

• Cole Young, Ryan Sloan, Brennen Davis, Draft strategy
  A critical development with the club’s second baseman, Sloan’s hurdles, Davis’ viability, and a draft strategy

• Scouring for Spring trades, Draft targets, Lazaro Montes
  Any spring trades to round out the roster? Plus, a few draft targets for Seattle, and Montes’ game

• Sloan vs. Gilbert & Kirby as prospects, Gilbert’s extension & delivery changes, plus the roster weakness

  Comparing Sloan to Kirby & Gilbert, the idea of a long-term extension for Gilbert, plus, what about Gilbert’s mechanical changes, and the club’s roster weakness right now?

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We’re two weeks into the Cactus League schedule and nearly a month into spring training. The Seattle Mariners roster began camp nearly set, with perhaps three bullpen decisions and one bench spot up for grabs.

Here’s what that looks like now, at least for me.

*Note: This is a projection, not necessarily the roster I’d take north.

PODCAST: Sloan vs. Gilbert, Kirby as Prospects

Starting Pitchers

Logan Gilbert, RH
Bryan Woo, RH
Luis Castillo, RH
George Kirby, RH
Bryce Miller, RH

No changes … yet. Kirby and Miller were shut down and could easily have their seasons pushed back a week or more, but as of today, there is still time for them to get ready to start games four and five of the season on March 29 and 30 at T-Mobile Park.

The favorites to fill in, if the need arises, are right-handers Cooper Criswell and Emerson Hancock.

This is also the order I’d project the five to be deployed, as of today. Gilbert is the team’s horse and a healthy version still projects as the best starter on the roster and most capable of topping 200 innings and consistently going six and seven innings.

Bullpen

Andrés Muñoz, RH
Jose Ferrer, LH
Gabe Speier, LH
Matt Brash, RH
Eduard Bazardo, RH
Cooper Criswell, RH
Yosver Zulueta, RH
Cole Wilcox, RH

Criswell makes the team here as a reliever for two reasons. One, it’s early in the year, and he’s capable of rolling out multi-inning appearances to cover innings as rotation arms get stretched out in the colder weather. He’s also out of options, and there’s a very good chance he’s claimed if the club tries to push him through waivers and get him to Triple-A.

If Criswell is needed in the rotation, right-hander Domingo Gonzalez would be the next arm up here in this projection.

I’m not sure the Mariners should or want to force a third lefty into their bullpen as some national pundits have opined, but Josh Simpson has shown better stuff and command than Robinson Ortiz in the tiny sample that has transpired to date.

Zulueta has shown a swing-and-miss slider to get the nod here, as has Wilcox. Both had sat 94-97 mph.

Brash’s tooth issue stalled his spring activities, but he appears on track to ramp up in plenty of time.

Lineup

1B: Josh Naylor
2B: Cole Young
3B: Brendan Donovan
SS: J.P. Crawford
C: Cal Raleigh
LF: Randy Arozarena
CF: Julio Rodriguez
RF: Luke Raley
DH: Dominic Canzone

For the sake of this exercise, I assumed a right-handed starting pitcher for the starting lineup above, hence Raley over Robles/Refsnyder. Raley is a better glove than Canzone (albeit not by as much as some seem to think), so he gets the starting gig here.

Young has had a few moments at the plate this spring and has looked pretty darned good defensively at second, but his ability to manage versus left-handed pitching remains in serious question, which should impact the club’s decision on the bench. We’ll get to that, well, right now.

I expect Donovan to lead off versus right-handed pitchers, but there’s no sensible argument for keeping him there against lefties. Rob Refsnyder makes a ton of sense to bat ahead of the middle of the order against left-handers, though Victor Robles could earn some looks, too.

I much prefer Rodriguez in the two-hole and Raleigh hitting third, but the club may be afraid of Rodriguez’s ground-ball tendencies and his team-leading 15 GIDPs from a year ago.

Bench

C: Mitch Garver
IF: Leo Rivas
OF: Rob Refsnyder
OF: Victor Robles

The final position player on the roster seems to be a choice between Miles Mastrobuoni and Rivas, and with Rivas being the better runner and glove, he has the advantage anyway. But the kicker is his ability to switch hit, which means he’s an option to stand in for Young or even Donovan (which I wouldn’t expect much of) in key spots versus left-handed pitching.

Mastrobuoni has an options advantage, however — meaning, he has none, and Rivas has one left — but the club’s options around the infield in 2026 are pretty solid, including top prospect Colt Emerson. Ryan Bliss and Brock Rodden also serve as meaningful depth. Plus, there’s always a legit chance Mastrobuoni clears waivers.

Garver has a better chance to provide legit backup catcher offense (which is around an 87-90 wRC+, depending on the year, and he knows the pitching staff well. Andrew Knizner has a defensive edge, but has never hit much in his career, and the Mariners seem set in Triple-A (Brian O’Keefe, Jonny Pereda) if they attempt to slip Knizner through waivers. Knizner has the right to refuse an assignment if he’d prefer to become a free agent, but Garver is a pretty easy choice here, assuming health.

Including reasonable expectations with graduations in 2026, this is what the 2027 Top 10 might look like, including a raw projection of the club’s 2026 MLB Draft picks.

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1. Ryan Sloan, RHP
Sloan has a plus fastball up to 98, a developing split-change, and a slider that projects to miss bats consistently. He’s a future potential frontline arm, up to and including true No. 1 ace status, and despite being a prep pick in 2024, could see the majors in 2027.

2. Luke Stevenson, C
He can catch, hit for power, and throw, and while his floor as a No. 2 catcher with strong-side platoon value increases the intrigue, his ETA and upside make him a legit Top 100 candidate by 2027.

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3. Felnin Celesten, SS
Celesten is looking for a bit of a rebound, despite not really struggling in 2025. The tools still significantly outweigh the production, but we’re still talking about a chance at an above-average shortstop glove with .270/.350/.440 slash, which is a 5-win player any year.

4. Jonny Farmelo, CF
Farmelo has power, speed, a chance to stay in center, and he’s proven adept and drawing walks, perhaps mitigating some of the swing-and-miss in his game. His swing still needs work, but he’s come a long way in a short period of time and simply needs to stay in the lineup.

5. Lazaro Montes, RF
Montes’ 70 raw power could go to waste if he can’t hold onto at least a 40-grade hit tool. There’s a lot of risk here, but on the upside, he’s Kyle Schwarber or Adam Dunn.

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6. Michael Arroyo, LF
Arroyo is closing in on the majors, but despite a lack of upside, holds his status here as he looks to transition successfully to left field. It’s average power with above-average hit and on-base skills to go with a proximity edge that could get him into the Top 3.

7. Trevor Condon, CF —Etowah HS (Ga.) / Pick 24 in 2026 MLB Draft
This is a wild guess at this stage, but Condon represents the range of talent Seattle will likely have a shot at when they select No. 24 in July. Condon is a long-term center fielder with a classic left-handed swing that includes some quirky pre-pitch activity. He’s a 70 runner with plenty of quick-twitch actions to suggest premium defense and high stolen base numbers. It’s good bat speed, and while he’s unlikely to develop more than average power, that was also said about Corbin Carroll who has 88 homers over the last three seasons. Condon is 5-foot-11, 175 pounds, even a tick taller and bigger than Carroll.

There are a numbers of arms that could make sense at 24 — prep and college both — and a few infielders, including the older brother of the club’s second-round pick a year ago, who is No. 9 here. Eric Becker could go in the Top 10-15, but there are numerous upside plays that could end up pushing the likes of Becker down to Seattle.

Among the high school pitchers that could land in this range are Logan Schmidt, a projectable southpaw with a chance at three above-average pitches with velocity upside, and right-hander Coleman Borthwick, a 6-foot-6, 255-pound beast who has pushed the upper 90s and already misses bats with a mid-80s slider.

Other than Becker, some of the college bats that could land here include Mississippi State’s Ace Reese, a lefty bat with plus power and solid traits, though the majority of scouts believe he’s more of a right fielder or first baseman than an option to stick at third. Texas A&M’s Gavin Grahovac comes is the right-handed version of Reese.

Among the college arms that could end up the pick here is Gabe Gaeckle, an athletic but somewhat undersized right-hander with a four-pitch mix, including a fastball up to 98 mph and two breaking balls that project as plus pitches. His teammate, lefty Hunter Dietz, is another arm to keep an eye on at 24. Dietz is 6-foot-6 and 235 pounds, and already hitting 98 and showing two useful breakers.

8. Trey Beard, LHP — Florida Atlantic / Pick 65 in 2026 Draft
Beard is essentially discount Kade Anderson, standing 6-foot-2 and 185 pounds and commanding four pitches. He’s up to 95 but comfortably 92-93 mph to start 2026, both breaking balls project to the big leagues, and his changeup is already a big-league quality pitch.

Beard throws strikes and figures to move quickly, potentially making him an ideal second-round pick, particularly if Seattle goes bat or prep arm in Round 1.

9. Nick Becker, SS
Becker has some swing fixes to make -- different, but not unlike Farmelo in Year 1 -- but he’s another plus athlete with the arm and athleticism to play anywhere on the field and looks the part of a long-term shortstop. He has the bat speed to hit 20 homers, but needs to work on his load and trigger while probably reverting back to his approach prior to his senior year.

10. Yorger Bautista, CF
Tools, tools, and more tools. Bautista is as tooled up as any Mariners prospect, and needs to improve upon his 2025, which came and went with merely mixed results. Improving his contact rate is the first thing that stands out, as it allows his loudest tool (power) to go to work.

In this exercise, we project three years into the future to piece together a roster. But there’s a catch: No trade acquisitions, free agent signings, or contract extensions allowed. This is what the roster might look like if the club simply let everything play out for 2029.

To illustrate how much it can change from year to year, here’s the projection from last year.

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The name of the scouting game below the big leagues is largely centered around tools: big power, premium bat-to-ball skills, elite strike zone judgement, big arms, huge fastball velocities, and offspeed pitches that project to miss bats.

At first, these tools are unrefined physical traits. As players develop, the tools turn into skills that, hopefully, generate MLB-quality results.

The Seattle Mariners’ farm system boasts a strong mix of loud tools, projectable ones, and a very intriguing mix of both in the upper minors.

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Felnin Celesten, SS
Celesten starts 2026 as a shortstop full of above-average to plus tools, but is coming off a season in which the batted ball data was down, as was his availability and consistency. He was diagnosed with vertigo a month into the season, missing nearly two weeks, but the belief is the condition impacted him far beyond his return.

His standard numbers were OK in Modesto before an 11-game cup of java in High-A Everett to finish out the season. Overall, the power hasn’t developed yet, and his defense needs to be cleaned up.

And while he’ll spend all of 2026 at age 20, a repeat of 2025 will send him tumbling in my rankings, perhaps outside the Top 10 entirely — not that it would necessarily be permanent, considering the tools and age.

At some point, though, young players have to perform.

Christian Little, RHP
Little is likely to start 2026 in High-A, but to keep his status as a Top 20 prospect, he has to throw more strikes this coming season and maintain his rotation projection.

The improvement of at least one of his breaking balls is likely to be at the forefront of that equation. At 22, he’ll start to run out of time to stay on his current path. Big 2026 for Little.

Teddy McGraw, RHP
McGraw will begin 2026 healthy — at least in camp, since he ended ‘25 in good shape — but my system has little patience left for the 2023 draftee. I already have him at No. 29 because of his injuries and lack of time on the mound as a pro, and it’s a lot more difficult to see rotation work over the long term.

McGraw simply has to stay off the IL and pitch well. He’s probably not a candidate to be shoved off the Top 50, unless he has another major surgery that ends his season and potentially cuts into another.

Jared Sundstrom, OF
I’m not as high on Sundstrom as some others, and his 2025 is the reason why. After a strong year in High-A at age 23 (.263/.380/.434), he fell off the planet in Double-A in 2025, slashing .219/.297/.374 with a 29.7% strikeout rate.

He’s a big, strong outfielder at 6-foot-2 and 230 pounds, generates above-average bat speed, and can take a walk. He struggled with both good velocity and breaking balls at Arkansas last season, and lefties were able to get him to chase at the same rate as right-handers.

There are a lot of holes to close, and he’s already 24 and change.

Walter Ford, RHP
Ford’s high school velocity — up to 97 mph — seems to be permanently gone, and his strike-throwing isn’t going to save him here.

In 23 starts in Single-A, Ford posted a 17.9% strikeout rate, runs-allowed metrics had him in the low-mid 4s, and his stuff has been underwhelming so far in pro ball.

He will spend all of 2026 at age 21, and both of his breaking balls flash at times, but it’s difficult to profile him in the majors in any role at present.

Something’s got to give: Either Ford shows up with better stuff, or he’s unlikely to stay on my radar, at least as a starter, and he’s hanging on by a very thin thread as it stands.

This could be a group of 15-25 players, but I’ll keep it relatively brief. The goal here is to identify some long-term projects that have tools and upsides that may net them significant gains in the rankings process in 2026. I’ll mostly stick to the least-noted names of the bunch in an effort to fill some gaps.

Off we go.

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