Seattle Mariners top prospect Kade Anderson went 5.2 innings versus the Chicago Cubs in his big-league debut, using his entire four-pitch arsenal effectively against one of the best lineups in the majors — the best versus left-handed pitchers in all of baseball entering the contest.

He threw 81 pitches, 53 strikes (65%)s, and missed bats with all four, particularly the 86-90 mph slider (6 whiffs, 11 swings). Until the sixth, Anderson allowed just two hard-hit balls — and only four above 85 mph. He yielded three runs on five hits overall, including three extra-base hits in his final inning. He left with one out in the sixth with the Cubs leading 3-2.

It was a strong start to his career, and pretty much one of those ‘as advertised’ performances, at least until the sixth inning, the third time through the Cubs lineup.

And, no, Anderson should not have been allowed to stay in the game beyond the Pete Crow-Armstrong double in a tie game versus this lineup, and you can argue he should have been done after the final out in the fifth. And then after the gift double play, he still shouldn’t have been allowed to face Michael Busch, another Cubs left-handed batter who handles lefties well.

Still, a solid first impression by the 2025 No. 3 overall pick.

How does Anderson’s debut match up versus that of the rest of the rotation, who all made their debuts with the Seattle Mariners?

Here we go:

Gilbert was the club’s first-round pick in 2018, No. 14 overall out of Stetson. His debut was impacted by the cancellation of the MiLB season in 2020. Gilbert allowed two homers in this one, including one to future Hall of Famer Jose Ramirez.

Kirby threw 81 pitches in this one, 55 for strikes (68%), and all four hits allowed were singles.

Miller was outstanding versus a limited Athletics lineup, but punched out Brent Rooker three times and the 2-5 hitters eight times.

Woo was hit hard by the Rangers in his debut and really didn’t get traction until start No. 3. Like Miller, Woo was selected in the 2021 MLB Draft — Woo in Round 6, Miller in Round 4.

Hancock was solid in his debut, holding a daunting Padres lineup to two hits and a run. San Diego went with Ha-Seong Kim, Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth that day.

Anderson probably ranks behind Miller, Kirby, and right there with Hancock.

Many more to come from Anderson, who showed his four-seamer has armside run to set up the slider, and his changeup plays the same game. He used the four-seamer up, and teased with the vertical curveball but didn’t have the best feel for it in this one. It’s a plus pitch.

Everything from the same slot, same arm speed, and the variance of the breaking balls from 80-90 mph — from depth and sweeping breaking to almost cutter-like action — plus the angle game he plays, and you can see why Anderson has a bright future. If plus control can eventually turn into plus command, Cliff Lee is the comp.

The penultimate in-season Prospect Rankings Update includes a new prospect acquired at the trade deadline and updates on numerous high-ceiling bats.

Players’ overall future value (OFP, FV) dictates the rankings, so at times it doesn’t take much for the order to change. But sometimes movement takes months.

* Players currently in the majors do not qualify, even if they maintain rookie status (Brock Rodden).

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Andrés Muñoz has been a terrific reliever for the Seattle Mariners over the last four-plus seasons. But for a good portion of the first half of 2026, the right-hander just wasn’t himself. The velocity was fine. The slider movement was fine. His control was not, and it appeared at times as if hitters were sitting slider until obvious fastball counts. The results were hurting the team.

Since his June 14 outing at Washington, however, Muñoz has been dominant again.

How’s he doing it? What’s different?

Let’s dive in.

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This is the antepenultimate set of in-season rankings here at Baseball Things, with the next set coming in about four weeks and the final ‘in-season’ rankings coming as the MiLB season consludes around the third week of September.

Players’ overall future value (OFP, FV) dictates the rankings, so at times it doesn’t take much for the order to change. Sometimes movement takes months.

* Players currently in the majors do not qualify, even if they maintain rookie status.

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The trade deadline is a month away, and your Seattle Mariners are an incomplete team, thanks to injury and unforeseen performance issues.

One of those areas of need is in the bullpen, where Matt Brash is on the IL — he wasn’t himself before the injury, either — and the top relievers have apparent usage concerns.

It’s my opinion the club should not make assumptions about Brash — not just his return, but his return to form — therefore acquiring more than one high-leverage arm should be the goal.

Here’s one of those ideas and what the trade might look like from both sides of the ledger.

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Seattle Mariners righthander Logan Gilbert was outstanding Tuesday night versus the Baltimore Orioles. That’s easy to see, because the results, near and far, are fantastic. It’s the kind of performance the club has been waiting to see.

The club’s Opening Day starter went seven strong innings, allowed just one run on two hits, walked one and struck out a season-high 10. It was his best start since at least last August when he punched out 13 Athletics in six innings, but I;d argue it was his best performance since September, 2024.

But what changed? How did he get there? Smoke and mirrors, or can he repeat it?

Let’s take a quick dig into the mechanics, movement profiles, and pitch selection.

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This is the second of four in-season updates to the prospect rankings here at Baseball Things. This time, the changes are major, due to the start of the summer leagues in Arizona and the Dominican Republic, and the former No. 1 prospect playing in the majors right now.

Players’ overall future value (OFP, FV) dictates the rankings, so at times it doesn’t take much for the order to change. Sometimes movement takes months.

* Players currently in the majors do not qualify, even if they maintain rookie status (Alex Hoppe, for example).

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We’re two full months through the 2026 MLB season. Are we seeing the cream rise yet?

Welcome to Seam-Shifted here at Baseball Things, where we lift the hood on the modern game of baseball. We’ll dive into advanced analytics and underlying metrics to break down player performance through the lens of individual games, seasons, and everything in between.

We’ll also dabble in scouting and player development, and bounce around levels and leagues.

If you want to move past standard box scores, you are in the right place — at least one of the right places.

Mainly, we’re just gonna have fun with baseball.

The Best Pitcher in Baseball Isn’t Skenes

Even after a strong showing last fall, the best pitcher in baseball in 2026 wasn’t foreseeable, and the leaderboard in such a category, while somewhat subjective, appears different enough from what was predictable in March to note after a third of the season

I often talk about ways to help hitters beyond traditional “lineup protection,” and it’s all about putting runners on base ahead of him. Well, Cam Schlittler doesn’t seem to give a damn. He leads all of baseball in pitcher fWAR at 2.9, and has arrived here, in part, by getting tough with runners on base.

His LOB rate of 82.7% ranks in the Top 20 and is far from unsustainable (for the most part), but with runners on base, he’s held opposing batters to .194 wOBA and .165/.214/.203 slash with a 30-5 K/BB ratio. He’s been even better with runners in scoring position, allowing a .105 average.

Overall, Schlittler owns an elite 2.56 xERA and 1.91 FIP combo, suggesting there’s very little luck or randomness happening here. He has elite fastball value (.188 BA, .257 SLGA with a 35% whiff rate versus his four-seamer), and the slash-line success versus his curveball also comes with a 41% whiff rate and the fact that he only throws the pitch 6-7% of the time.

If there’s a complaint to be had here, it’s the lack of a high-quality breaking ball, but so far the four-seamer and cutter have been too much for the league. That success is banked, and I’m not sure there are any signs yet of batters being capable of sitting on the hard stuff and teeing off on him.

The Best All-Around Player in the Game

Bobby Witt Jr. is a highly respected player, a star, a superstar even, and perhaps the best player in baseball the last three years behind Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge. He sits atop the American League this season with a 3.5 fWAR, nearly a full win ahead of Corbin Carroll (2.7) and Andy Pages (2.7).

That’s not surprising, and neither is the point that Witt adds value all over the field. But such a benign fact tells so little of the story in 2026. The Kansas City Royals star owned a 135 WRC+ through May 26, a very good line for almost anyone. But Witt’s WAR lead is more heavily weighted on defense and baserunning than is even remotely typical, further illustrating his all-around abilities.

Witt ranks as the 38th best hitter in baseball, but No. 1 in defensive runs above average, and at 2.7 (No. 7) is among the elite baserunners in the game, too. But let’s get back to the point: The 25-year-old leads the entire league in fWAR without being anywhere near its best hitter, and that’s unique.

It almost makes me want to dive deeper into the value slices of MVPs.

Almost. (at least for now)

And Now, Scary Thoughts, by Yordan Alvarez

We all know Yordan Alvarez is a tremendous hitter. I often say Alvarez truly is what some think Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is. For the record, Alvarez, by wRC+, is nearly 30% better than Guerrero at the plate over the course of their careers (164-136). Guerrero has just two seasons that compete with Alvarez’s career averages.

This season might be Alvarez’s best yet, too. But beyond his 185 wRC+, which leads the big leagues, he’s batting .303/.414/.631. Still, there’s a chance Alvarez has been unlucky, and those numbers should be even bigger.

Through May 26, Alvarez’s xwOBA is .489, and what’s crazy is his wOBA is .440. He’s not getting lucky at all; he’s earning his numbers. But his BABIP is low at .296. His career mark is 22 points higher, suggesting he could be hitting nearly .330, raising his OBP into the .435 range, and assuming the same extra-base hit ratio would raise his slugging to the .660-.670 range. This would produce a wRC+ of 200 or higher, meaning ~100% better than league average.

Only Aaron Judge has posted a 200 or better over the last 25 years, and just 14 players have done it in a full, qualifying season — ever. Two of those came via the pre-1900 era. It’s been done just 33 times in 150 seasons, and eight times since 1990. Alvarez is performing at this level right now.

shudder.

Wood he BE Any Better?

Little Chandler Bing for you there. James Wood of the Washington Nationals has been a star in 2026. His .276/.314/.551 slash comes with 15 home runs, a 168 wRC+, and 2.5 fWAR. His defense is poor, so his WAR is dragged down. It’s been an impactful offensive season for Wood, who ranks No. 6 in baseball with a 17% walk rate, and No. 2 in xwOBA at .437 (Alvarez is No. 1, shocking, I know).

Especially considering Wood’s power (15 HR), elite raw bat speed (76.6 AVG), longer swing (7.4), and in-zone contact rate (84.2%), his 22.3% chase rate is elite. The strange thing is, Wood owns a 29% strikeout rate.

My development questions here for the 23-year-old would include figuring out how this is happening and how to combat it. I’d start with his out-of-zone contact rate (41%, suggesting he struggles there or extends beyond the shadows too far, too often, despite the general lack of chase. League average is 59-60% in 2026). He’s had massive contact problems against breaking balls, and while he does see them 8% more often versus left-handed pitchers, he’s still whiffing 49% of the time when righties throw him sliders or curveballs.

In addition, his zone profile — which I did not investigate — may show some areas in the zone that are giving him problems, too. It’s unlikely to be just about the breaking ball.

Wood’s ability to swing at strikes and limit chases is terrific, but the underlying facts suggest a lot of room for improvement in the big picture. Or he’ll simply turn out to be a three-true-outcome player, albeit a pretty valuable one with a chance to hit .260-.280 with 40 homers. No one will complain about that, except opponents.

GET BASEBALL THINGS

Highly Differing Paths to 6-win Seasons?

Fangraphs’ version of WAR includes defense, using fielding runs, or defensive runs, derived from Statcast’s Outs Above Average as a base. Runs above average can then be turned into wins. Essentially, 10 runs equals a win.

Knowing this, we can certainly understand why seven players are paced for 5-6 win campaigns, but in two very different ways.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is an elite defender in center field, Witt Jr. the same at shortstop. Colson Montgomery is headed for such distinction, too, and Dillon Dingler is rolling along behind the plate. As much disdain as I have for small-sample metrics, all signs beyond the first third of the 2026 season suggest more of the same for these four players (good-elite defenders), so we’ll run with it in this instance, and with confidence.

All four are 2-win players already this season, and while all but Crow-Armstrong have posted strong offensive value, their defense is an enormous reason their value reads as high as it does.

For Wood, Alvarez, Jordan Walker, and, surprisingly, albeit by a lesser ratio, Byron Buxton, defense has done nothing to help them, but all are at the 2-win mark and paced for 5-6 fWAR for the year.

We’ve talked about Wood and Alvarez at the plate — and we know their lack of value in the field is real and not just small-sample mirages. Walker, too, has been very good in what appears to be his breakout season. But his defense in right field has been well below average over the course of his career, which includes nearly 2500 innings across parts of four seasons.

On the surface, it’s odd that Walker owns a +6 DRS but a -2 OAA — perhaps the difference between the two and how to explain why the results conflict is something we tackle down the road — but OAA is part of the fWAR formula (though it’s not the entire defensive portion), DRS is not.

Buxton’s season is the oddball here. He’s known for his defense, but the last three or four years, he’s shown some wear and tear and has generally posted around average value in the field. This season, he’s literally at zero runs above average defensively, meaning his 1.9 fWAR is more about his bat this season (.143 wRC+) than ever before.

Very different players, very similar value. There are lots of ways to provide value, eh?

Regression for These 5 Arms?

When analyzing performance, we’re always looking for evidence the performance to date is somewhat sustainable, or evidence it’s probably not.

These three pitchers may see some regression, based on their ERA vs FIP. FIP, of course, is like ERA, but with normalized results after the ball is put in play to account for varying defensive and ballpark effects.

Nick Martinez, TB: 1.51 ERA, 3.45 FIP

Martinez’s FIP is still good, so ‘regression’ here doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t be good. His xFIP of 4.26 suggests league average, and since he’s not going to miss bats (career 16.7% K rate, 14.9% in 2026), Martinez is relying on weak contact, and unfortunately, not much of it is of the ground ball type, which would limit damage.

Chase Burns, CIN: 1.96 ERA, 3.39 FIP
While nearly every pitcher with a sub-2.00 ERA is probably due for regression, it doesn’t mean their performance is based on more luck than anything else. Burns has good stuff, and his FIP, xFIP (3.15), and xERA (2.88) are also good.

There will be regression in the ERA column, but not enough to sell on Burns in the least, a high-ceiling starter with strikeout stuff (29%) and solid-average control and command at just 23 years of age. I’d be more worried about his ability to stay off the IL.

Bryce Elder, ATL: 1.97 ERA, 3.28 FIP

Elder relies on pitch mix, led by a plus low-mid 80s slider, and so far in 2026, the ability to keep the ball in the yard. I don’t buy anything but the slider, which he throws more than any other pitch.

These Two Should See the Other Kind of Regression

Seth Lugo, KC: 3.74 ERA, 3.08 FIP
Lugo has never been a big strikeout pitcher — at least as a starter, he’s landed above 25% as a reliever before — and he’s never been a ground ball guy, either. It’s less predictable, but the righty has a knack for inducing weak contact.

I do wonder if he can continue to walk 8-9% of the batter he faces if his 20%-or-under strikeout rate and 36% ground ball rate can carry him to another 4-plus win season (2024), and anything beyond three wins might be tough despite his 1.7 fWAR start, considering the quality of contact against him so far in 2026.

I don’t buy his 4% HR/FB rate in the slightest, and all his strike and whiff rates continue to decline.

Reid Detmers, LAA: 4.57 ERA, 2.82 FIP

Detmers’ defense has let him down, as his FIP, xFIP, and xERA say he has been significantly better than his ERA suggests — another reason to ignore ERA.

Detmers has been good in his return to the rotation, maintaining nearly all of his ability to miss bats (28%), throwing more strikes than ever, and consistently giving the Angels a fighting chance.

He’s had a few nasty blips that include a four-walk and six-walk outing, but he just tasered the Texas Rangers with 14 strikeouts over eight innings of one-run baseball. He was a Jake Burger second-inning homer from theoretically taking a perfect game into the ninth inning.

Some might recall that Detmers was the Angels’ first-round pick in 2020, the same year the Mariners selected Emerson Hancock. Both are having breakout years this season, but Detmers may be prime trade bait this summer as he creeps toward steeper arbitration salaries and free agency on a bad team.

Detmers entered 2026 with three full years of service (two-time arbitration) and is scheduled to hit free agency after the 2028 season.

Hancock has one year of service, won’t be arbitration eligible until after 2027, and free agency won’t hit until after the 2030 season.

During the draft process back then, I wrote how the Mariners’ backup plan to Hancock should be Detmers, not infielder Nick Gonzalez.

Gonzalez is now 27, will be eligible for arbitration after this season, and is putting up a 104 wRC+ thus far. He’s a solid defender at second, but has no power and doesn’t carry significant apparent upside. In other words, not only did the Mariners make the right decision, but Churchill had it right on Detmers vs. Gonzalez, despite many pining for the ‘hitter.’

Cristopher Sanchez is the (more) modern, lefty version of King Felix

Ok, that’s a bit of a stretch, but stay with me. Sanchez, 29, is among the elite starters in baseball right now, and the way he is getting outs is similar to that of prime Felix.

When adjusting for eras (strikeouts), it’s nearly identical.

Sanchez is punching out 29% of the batters he’s facing and owns a 58.3% ground ball rate. Not all of those 58.3% are outs, and that rate is calculated by balls in play only, but that’s a lot of outs without the ball being lifted into the air.

The real math is close, though, as 83.6% of the outs Sanchez has recorded this season are by way of groundout or strikeout.

Hernandez’s best years were just under 80%, with 2014’s 80.4% rate his career high. It’s extremely similar, and adjusting for the strikeout era here, the two are pretty much identical in this manner.

Neither Sanchez nor Felix threw what I would call dominating sinkers — certainly not like Derek Lowe, Brandon Webb, or Kevin Brown. But grounders from their sinker and changeup did the trick in combo, and Sanchez is still doing it.

For the record, batted ball data is only available for the final four years of Brown’s career (2002-2005) when he was 37-40 years old, and his whole career took place long before the strikeout era began. He still posted 83-85% strikeouts + ground outs at that stage of his career.

Brown would go 95mph with a four-seamer (the old way to track velo, too, so more like 97-98) and for strikes, a lot of strikes, get the batter swinging in pitcher counts, then throw the sinker at the bottom of the zone or just below it and destroy your bat, your hands, your reputation, and if you let him, you entire life. He threw so hard, too, you don’t see the late sink as much and as often as if you watched Lowe or Webb.

If you ever wanted to know what a bowling ball sinker looks like, Brown had it.
#WTFKB

Grade This Post!

This is the first of four in-season updates with my rankings. I don’t make changes without convincing evidence. Sometimes it takes 2-3 months for differences to mean any move up or down. Sometimes I’m sold on making the move sooner

Players’ overall future value (OFP, FV) dictates the rankings, so at times it doesn’t take much for the order to change.

* Players currently in the majors do not qualify, even if they maintain rookie status (Alex Hoppe, for example).

The pre-season Top 50 is here.

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After the first full month of the 2026 season, it’s impossible not to scramble the pre-season rankings. However, I’m not simply ranking the teams based on their win-loss records nor am I automatically buying their early start is sustainable.

As if the Mariners’ riches in the pitching department weren’t already vast.

Seattle selected nine pitchers in the first 11 rounds of the Draft last July, and while most of the audience is focused No. 3 overall pick Kade Anderson, fourth-round pick Mason Peters, and sixth-round pick Lucas Kelly, there’s another name to track.

Right-hander Jackson Steensma is a name to watch. He missed his entire junior season at Appalachian State in 2025 after having UCL surgery, but the Mariners made him their ninth-round pick,, anyway.

Steensma stands 6-foot-4 and about 245 pounds, and has a chance at four major-league pitches. He’s sitting 91-94 mph so far in 2026, showing some arm side run from a short, three-quarter slot. His best secondary is a low-mid 80s slider with late break and some depth. He’s generating nearly 50% whiff rate on the pitch in his four starts.

Steensma also has a sharp curveball at 76-79 mph, and a mid-80s fading changeup. All three secondaries have flashed average or better, and the California League has been no match.

Sunday was Steensma’s deepest outing. He went four frames, allowing two hits and a run. He did not walk a batter and struck out seven. For the season, he’s allowed three hits and a walk over 10 innings. He’s struck out 17 of the 34 batters he’s faced. For the mathematically challenged, that’s half. :)

The 22-year-old currently profiles as a depth starter, but his fastball has firmed up since the start of the season and there may be a little more velocity in the tank. He repeats a compact delivery pretty well, and projects to throw plenty of strikes.

Steensma is certainly on an innings limit this season that isn’t likely to allow a natural, full workload, but he’s making such quick work of Single-A so far, the Mariners may have no choice to but to challenge him in the Northwest League before he hits the end of his runway.

Seattle Mariners right-hander Bryce Miller made his second of what is likely to be several rehab assignment starts on his way back from an oblique injury. Miller was pretty good Friday for High-A Everett, but he wasn’t the only arm to shine down on the farm.

In his first start last week in Triple-A Tacoma, Miller touched 98.7 mph. He didn’t disappoint in this one, going three scoreless innings. He allowed one hit and a walk while striking out six batters.

He hit 98 numerous times and went to his slider plenty in this one, proving no match for High-A hitters. He threw 47 pitches, 35 for strikes. He generated eight whiffs, four of them on fastballs.

The club has stated Miller will likely need most or all of the 30-day limit for pitcher rehab assignments. Friday’s outing was Day 7. At a similar pace, and with some changes as he nears his return, Miller likely gets three more starts, but it’s plausible to get in four more if the outings are spaced out closer to big-league standards.

The Mariners’ 2025 first-round pick and top pitching prospect, Kade Anderson, made his fourth career start Friday and was again outstanding. For me, this was Anderson’s best start as a pro.

His outing was cut a bit short due to the weather, but he went 4.2 shutout innings, yielding one hit. He didn’t walk a batter and struck out eight. He threw 59 pitches, 39 for strikes.

Anderson sat 94-95 mph — 96 tops — with his fastball, locating well, and using the pitch to all four edges. His curveball was plus again, he mixed in an average slider, and his changeup was the best I’ve ever seen it.

When the season began, I explained on the Podcast how I wanted to see two things from Anderson in 2026: First, better fastball command. Second, a better changeup so he can use it more.

Check and check.

I also opined a few weeks back that it shouldn’t be out of the question that Anderson goes to Triple-A before he gets the call to the majors, which very well could be sometime this summer, despite the club’s current riches in the rotation, especially with Miller on track to return in May.

Thus far, Anderson has not run into much of a challenge in the Texas League, and it might behoove the Mariners to find a way to test their prized left-hander.

Once his numbers from Friday’s start hit his tally— once the suspended game becomes official — he’ll have logged 18.2 innings, allowed nine hits, one run, walked four, and fanned 30 of 68 batters faced, a 44% mark.

But it’s not the gaudy numbers, it’s how he’s doing it. Highly efficient, and with four quality pitches, at least two of which look like plus offerings. He’s pounding the zone for called strikes (54 thru four stats), and still inducing whiffs (46).

Fellow Southpaw Mason Peters (No. 13) is making his own mark early in 2026, and was at it again Friday while Anderson was finishing his gem. Peters went four innings, allowed one run on four hits, did not walk a batter, and struck out four. He threw 55 pitches, 37 strikes.

It wasn’t Peters’ best start, but he sat 92-94 mph, showed an average slider, and a plus curveball. I didn’t see many changeups in this one, but he’s flashed a promising one in prior outings. Peters’ ability to spin the baseball is his strength, and he leans into it.

Peters has some similarities to Anderson — both lefties, both with big, sharp curveballs. Peters is a little further away with the third and fourth pitch, and he doesn’t throw quite as hard, but it’s easy to see a No. 4 starter here, assuming he can throw enough strikes and find a way to extinguish right-handed batters consistently.

In four starts, the 22-year-old has allowed four runs on 11 hits in 16 frames. He’s walked three and struck out 25.

It’s been just a couple of weeks, so the sample dictates absolutely nothing, but I’ve braved the cold three times to see some players, poured over a lot of video, and asked some player development and scouting folks for thoughts.

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With the Everett AquaSox getting their season underway Friday, all four Mariners’ affiliates have started their 2026 schedules, and most of the club’s top prospects have made an appearance.

Among those who have yet to through Friday’s games:

Ryan Sloan, RHP — Makes his debut Saturday for Double-A Arkansas
Yorger Bautista, OF — Extended spring training, likely starts his season in the Arizona Complex League in a few months
Nick Becker, SS — Extended spring training, likely starts his season in ACL
Griffin Hugus, RHP — Will miss the season due to UCL surgery
Juan Rijo, OF — Extended spring training, will start his season in the DSL
Chia-Shi Shen, RHP — Extended spring training (elbow)
Leandro Romero, SS — Extended spring training, likely starts season in ACL
Teddy McGraw, RHP — Extended spring training (elbow)
Marcelo Perez, RHP — Extended spring training (forearm)

It’s worth noting Grant Knipp (DH/RHR) is expected to return later this season after having UCL surgery a year ago. He’s not currently ranked in my Top 50. Ruddy Navarro is on the same path. Don’t forget that name, he’s been my sleeper for two years.

For purposes of my in-season prospect rankings & updates moving forward, players out long-term due to injury will be removed from the equation until they return. Players must be active or on what’s believed to be a short-term IL stint to be eligible.

The most eye-popping assignment is Sloan to Double-A. He’s 19 years old, but has good stuff, is improving at a rapid rate, and is destined to pass his Travelers teammate Kade Anderson in the rankings in 2026.

The club could have justified starting both in High-A Everett, but it seems Arkansas is the appropriate challenge. It’s not about the level, it’s about the actual competition of the league.

Anderson went four scoreless in his pro debut Friday, throwing 43 of his 59 pitches for strikes, walking one and striking out six of the 18 batters he faced. He did allow five hits, but all were singles, and only a few were solidly struck. He was mostly 93-94 mph, and mixed in sliders and curveballs. He struck out the first batter he faced as a pro, making a very tough batter to strike out in Joshua Kuroda-Grauer look silly.

The Arkansas roster also boasts Lazaro Montes (No. 7), Michael Arroyo (8), Charlie Beilenson (20), Michael Morales (32), Jared Sundstrom (35), and Tyler Cleveland (42).

Arroyo hit a solo home run in this one, as did Sundstrom. Sundstrom’s was an absolute bomb.

Up in Triple-A, it’s No. 1 prospect Colt Emerson’s world, but RHRs Alex Hoppe (15), Yosver Zulueta (16), and lefty Robinson Ortiz (18) are living in it. Righty reliever Cole Wilcox (21) is in the majors at the moment and has thrown enough strikes to stay for the time being. Utility man Brock Rodden (25) is with the Rainiers, too, as is RHR Troy Taylor (27), and OF Rhylan Thomas (39). Ryan Bliss (33) started the year with the big club and is now back in Tacoma after the return of J.P.
Crawford to active duty.

It’s not a prospect-laden roster but it has a lot of potential help stewing for the parent club.

In High-A, Felnin Celesten (4), Jonny Farmelo (5), and Luke Stevenson (6) lead the cast. I was hoping for a small handful of picks from the 2025 Draft class to land with the Sox, but Hugus is hurt and out, and two of the other three were left back in Single-A to get things started. Nothing too surprising.

Right-handed reliever Lucas Kelly (17) did get to Everett, as did fellow righties Christian Little (19), Wyatt Lunsford-Shenkman (36), Brock Moore (40), Walter Ford (43), catcher Josh Caron (31), first baseman Luis Suisbel (26), and outfielder Carlos Jimenez (45).

Farmelo and Celesten each reached base twice, Stevenson singled in four trips to the plate, and Lunsford-Shenkman struck out three and two near-perfect innings out of the pen. He entered the season with just 6.1 innings under his belt after missing almost all of 2025.

I don’t expect the Mariners to be aggressive with the bats in Everett from a promotion standpoint, but a standard time frame for all of them remains within the season. The relief group could easily see Arkansas this season, too.

Outfielder Korbyn Dickerson (12) and lefty Mason Peters (13) are the top-ranked prospects on the Single-A Inland Empire roster. The 66ers also opened with catcher Grant Jay (28), right-hander Aiden Butler (30), and infielder Dervy Ventura (46).

Peters started Friday and fanned five over four frames. He allowed three runs on three hits and a walk. He was 90-93 with a pretty good breaker. He whiffed the first batter he faced in his pro career. Dickerson went yard, and Jay went 2-for-3.

Both Peters and Dickerson have a real chance to see Everett later this season, perhaps as a few of the better talents from the ACL earn their way to the Cal League.

Romero, Becker, and Bautista are names to watch in that regard, and I’d expect one or more of the club’s draft picks to fit into the mix with the 66ers.

It’s reasonable to believe as many as nine of my current Top 9 prospects in the Mariners’ system finish the year in Double-A or higher, including the majors.

Emerson Hancock has entered the chat. The former first-round pick has been overshadowed by the more established quintet the Seattle Mariners have deployed in the starting rotation the past couple of years, but the right-hander stole the spotlight in the opening series with a six-inning game.

Hancock went six no-hit frames, walked one, and struck out a career-high nine, and it was anything but smoke and mirrors. He sat 93-94 mph (up to 96 early) with his four-seamer, which never looked better than it did in primetime Sunday night at T-Mobile Park, and for me that’s where it all starts.

Live Postgame Shows at Baseball Things

Hancock came out of Georgia with questions about his fastball shape, which put a lot of pressure on velocity, command, and his secondary stuff. Sunday, we saw a completely different heater. The carry and life on the pitch kept Guardians hitters from squaring it up. The spin rate was up to 2538 RPM, an increase from 2389 a year ago. Spin rate on a four-seam fastball dictates its vertical movement, the rising effect. We see it a lot with George Kirby, Bryan Woo, and Bryce Miller.

Hancock threw his four-seamer 53% of the time in this game, generating nine whiffs on 37 swings (24%). The hardest exit velocity on the pitch was under 80 mph. He threw 69% first-pitch strikes with it.

Hancock also deployed the slider he began working on last spring but rarely brought it out in games. It’s a 77-80 mph slurve — curveball velocity, two-plane slider break — and his feel for it Sunday was a repeat of his spring. On 25 pitches, Hancock induced seven swings on the slider, three of them whiffs. He threw just five two-seamers and five changeups, but both are important pitches for him moving forward.

The value in the zone Hancock generated with the four-seamer was the difference from a pitch standpoint, but his reinvention goes well beyond.

It’s just one start, but his vertical and horizontal releases from Sunday contrasts with the first few years of his career, and hep him create deception to go with the movement on his pitches, a key component.

Vertical release is simply how far off the ground the ball is when it leaves the pitcher’s hand:

Horizontal release measures how far east-west a pitcher’s release is. For a right-hander such as Hancock, the release is on the third-base side of the mound and toward third baseball. As you can see, Hancock’s horizontal release has crept out further from the pitching slab, creating a different angle, and in start No. 1 of 2026, all of his pitch type show a remarkably-consistent release, helping to avoid tipping pitches while generating the sharper pitch angle:

Hancock also is using a lower arm slot. Arm slot is essentially the path of the arm through release, while vertical and horizontal release metrics are a result of arm angle:

These are significant differences in mechanics and they help explain why Hancock was able to get swings and misses and generate the kinds of in-zone value from his arsenal, particularly the four-seamer. It’s repeatable to a significant degree, too, reliant mostly on Hancock throwing strikes, staying out of the middle of the zone, getting ahead, and executing secondary offerings. At some point he’s going to need his changeup.

Hancock threw 97 pitches, 62 strikes, and generated six groundball outs versus just two in the air. He consistently got back into counts with quality pitch

es, never yielding to the batter, and he didn’t miss his spots much.

The performance was ace-like, but the repeatable execution here is more important — and Hancock isn’t done evolving. Seattle could be looking at another impact starting pitcher in the No. 6 overall pick from the 2020 Draft.

The 2026 MLB season is upon us after dozens of roster moves and months of predictions and projections.

Let’s have some fun with Opening Day Power Rankings. As the season progresses, we’ll tune up the fun here with monthly updates

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are the defending champs and on paper are even better than last season after adding Kyle Tucker and Edwin Diaz to the mix. But they’ll also get more of Shohei Ohtani the pitcher, presumably a better version of Roki Sasaki, and a solid chance for better production from young hitters Andy Pages and Dalton Rushing.

Key Player: Ohtani, RHP

The more Ohtani can pitch, the better the Dodgers will be.

2. Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays lost Bo Bichette but added Kazuma Okamoto, Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce, and Max Scherzer, should get a lot more of rookie righty Trey Yesavage, though they’ll have to hope his early-season shoulder injury doesn’t keep him out too long. They took the Dodgers to seven games a year ago and had two shots to clinch their first title in 30-plus years, and this year’s roster is better.

Key Player: Yesavage, RHP

First, the rookie needs to get healthy, but if he’s a 160-inning mid-rotation value, the Jays could separate themselves in the division.

3. Seattle Mariners

Seattle had their best postseason run ever in 2025, and there are numerous paths to a better 2026. It all starts with the rotation, where four of the five dealt with injuries a year ago, but the Mariners did bring back Josh Naylor and added Jose Ferrer to the bullpen and Brendan Donovan to the infield mix.

The club’s advantages over some other teams in the Top 10 include the chance they get significant help from the farm system in more ways than one. They can use it for trades, but Colt Emerson and Kade Anderson may break through and assist Seattle to another division title and a chance at their first World Series. They also have more players trending up than the majority of the American League.

Key Player: Cole Young, 2B

If Young shows he can hold down the everyday job at second base, it not only catapults an otherwise strong lineup into the Top 5 in baseball, it makes the deadline goals pretty easy for the front office.

4. New York Yankees

I think the Bombers have more potential questions than not only the Jays but also the Boston Red Sox, but also more upside, particularly with the rotation. They expect to get Gerrit Cole back in a month or less, Carlos Rodon is on a schedule landing him back on the mound by May, and Max Fried returns for Year 2 in pinstripes. They’ll also get Cam Schlittler from the get-go.

They may have a weak spot or two in the bullpen, but the lineup should be fine with Cody Bellinger back, a second full season of Ben Rice, and the chance Jasson Dominguez gets back and finds his footing. And the Yankees have Aaron Judge.

Key Player: David Bednar, RHR

The Yankees need someone to step up and shut it down, and Bednar has done that before in Pittsburgh.

5. Philadelphia Phillies

The Phils are getting a bit long in the tooth with 12 of their ultimate 26-man roster members over 30, including Zack Wheeler, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, and Kyle Schwarber. But they are getting some youth infused into the roster with right-hander Andrew Painter and outfielder Justin Crawford. Philly won 96 games a year ago and look like the best roster in the division again, despite the moves made by the New York Mets.

Key Player: Wheeler, RHP

If Wheeler gets back to his No. 1 starter form, the Phillies will hold an edge in the East. Without such a development, it’s more wide open.

6. Boston Red Sox

Boston went out and added Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez to the rotation, Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin to the lineup, and will have Roman Anthony from Day 1. It’s a deeper staff and overall roster than a year ago, and if they don’t have issues keeping the rotation healthy they could win the division. Boston, however, may be one hitter shy, depending on how some young players show early.

Key Player: Contreras, 1B

While Contreras will play first base and perhaps some DH, he’s essentially the replacement for Alex Bregman, who bolted for the money of the Chicago Cubs. He has been a steady bat for 10 years, but he’s also 33 and tends to miss 25-40 games a year. They need his steady presence.

7. New York Mets

The names on the roster look nice and shiny after a busy winter. Francisco Lindor. Juan Soto. Bo Bichette. Luis Robert Jr. Freddy Peralta. Marcus Semien. Devin Williams. But the pieces to the puzzle don’t necessarily fit as well on an actual baseball field as they do on a fantasy roster. They’ll be leaning on two rookie starting pitchers, and hoping for a healthy year from Clay Holmes to avoid major rotation issues, but they are healthy now and look like a legit contender on paper.

Key Player: Nolan McLean, RHP

McLean looked terrific in eight starts last season, and if he picks up where he left off, the only questions left will be how easily he wins the ROY and how high he finishes in the Cy Young vote. But Peralta’s 2025 may be more the outlier than anything, so a potential fall in production from him means more ask of the rest of the rotation.

8. Chicago Cubs

The Cubs don’t have the starting pitching on paper, but they do have depth, and the upside with Cade Horton and Edward Cabrera is more than interesting. The same can be said for the club’s bullpen. The lineup should be among the league’s elite, however, starting with Bregman and Pete Crow-Armstrong. There may not be an easy out in the lineup, including at catcher where Carson Kelly and Miguel Amaya loom.

Key Player: Justin Steele, LHP

Steele is the Cubs’ ace and figures to return in the first half of the season. If he’s vintage Steele, the Cubs are in business and every team in the NL should be on notice.

9. Detroit Tigers

I’d like the Tigers more if they did anything to add a veteran hitter to their lineup over the winter. They added Framber Valdez, brought back Justin Verlander, and already employ the best pitcher in baseball in Tarik Skubal. Detroit finished No. 11 in runs a year ago, No. 12 in wRC+, No. 14 in OBP, and struck out more than all but three clubs... and their lone addition to the lineup is rookie Kevin McGonigle. But this club is dangerous and should win the division again.

Key Player: McGonigle

The kid has a chance to answer the question I have about the Tigers, thanks to a plus hit tool. If not, Detroit may again be among the more inconsistent offenses in the league.

10. Baltimore Orioles

The O’s have among the most talented roster in baseball, but there are still some rotation questions, and they will need some of their young hitters to step up, especially with Jordan Westburg out until sometime in May. But Jackson Holliday, too, is out to start the season, as is Heston Kjerstad.

Key Player: Adley Rutschman, C

Rutschman was worth 11.1 fWAR combined in his first two seasons and has since fallen off a cliff. He posted a 91 wRC+ in 2025, and his left-handed swing fell to pieces. If Rutschman rebounds, the Orioles have another bat in their lineup and could play Sam Basallo at DH or 1B, and the club also could potentially move Rutschman for arm help. But he has to hit well up to that point.

11. San Diego Padres

The Padres’ rotation is unlovable, they have seven arms on the IL, and it was essentially a middle-of-the-pack offense in 2025, ranking 18th in runs and 13th in wRC+. They also have the most overrated GM in the game putting square pegs in round holes. Yu Darvish is out for the year - at least - and the farm has little help on the way. Still, the Friars are probably the second best team in the NL West, so they’ll probably be in the Wild Card hunt.

Key Player: Walker Buehler, RHP

We’ve seen Buehler dominate. Back in 2019 and 2021 with the Dodgers, he was among the best starters in the NL. Anything near that in 2026 and the Padres could be a top 8 team.

12. Kansas City Royals

They’ll need a little magic dust, but the Royals have a chance to be good. Cole Ragans has a chance to be a true No. 1 like he showed some of in 2024, and the Royals have some rotation depth to battle with the rest of the division. They also have Bobby Witt Jr., and my rookie of the year pick, catcher Carter Jensen. Vinnie Pasquantino found his swing again in 2025, and Jac Caglianone has made a few adjustments that should help him contribute... and the sky is the limit for him at the plate. Isaac Collins is a nice pickup, and Starling Marte should help versus lefties.

Key Player: Jonathan India, 2B

India’s first year in KC did not go well - he slashed .233/.323/.346 for a wRC+ of 89. The Royals need India or Michael Massey to find a viable level of production, or they’ll be in the market for second base help.

13. Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers get the nod here in a cluster of about 5-7 teams I don’t like all that much, and had a tough time typing out their name after No. 10... so here, I didn’t. Milwaukee does boast one of the best catchers in the game, will have Andrew Vaughn for the full year, and Jackson Chourio may be ready to explode. The names lining up to make starts is a bit uninspiring, but the Brewers have a recent track record of figuring those things out, and they have help on the way.

Key Player: Brandon Woodruff, RHP

Woodruff missed all of 2024, but returned last season and was excellent in 12 starts, posting a 32% strikeout rate and pounding the zone. He didn’t have all of his velocity back, and still doesn’t appear to, but his four-seamer, cutter, and changeup were nearly unhittable. A repeat for 175-plus innings, and the Brewers have their replacement for Peralta.

14. Houston Astros

I seem to be a little higher on the Astros than most, perhaps because I believe in Tatsuya Imai and Mike Burrows enough to see them sustaining their run of contending seasons. If they can keep Yordan Alvarez off the IL, the lineup has a chance to be pretty good, particularly if they find ways to get their best hitters in the lineup at the same time regularly. The bullpen has a chance to be very good again if healthy.

Key Player: Cam Smith, RF

Smith flashed in 2025, but struggled mightily after June. All the tools are there for a .260/.330/.450 season, but he had massive issues hitting the four-seamer and slider in his rookie season. If he hits, the Astros aren’t going away.

15. Texas Rangers

If the Rangers stayed entirely healthy all season they might win 95 games. Alas, three of their four best players - Corey Seager, Jacob deGrom, and Nathan Eovaldi - have an ongoing battle with injuries. Their ace, deGrom, stayed healthy in 2025, so that’s something, but it might just be a sign he’s due. He’s also 38 now. The addition of Brandon Nimmo is an underrated one, and MacKenzie Gore helps them cover when Eovaldi/deGrom are out.

There’s still room for more from Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker, but tough to count on them at this point. The signing of Jordan Montgomery could prove a good one with the lefty eyeing a July return. The bullpen is the club’s clearest weak spot, but the lineup has a chance to improve with Nimmo, Andrew McCutchen, and the chance we see breakouts from Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter. The club’s top prospect, infielder Sebastian Walcott, will miss the entire season, but righty Jose Corniell would be ready to help on the mound as early as mid-season.

Key Player

Seager

The shortstop is a steadying presence in the lineup and in the field, but hasn’t exceeded 123 starts in a season since 2022, his first in Texas. When he’s healthy, he rakes; when he’s out of the lineup, the Rangers struggle.

16. Arizona Diamondbacks

They’ve patched together a rotation that will be without Merrill Kelly for the first few weeks, and Corbin Burnes until at least mid-July, if not longer. The good news is Ketel Marte is healthy, Corbin Carroll’s wrist issues seem behind him, and the NL’s second most valuable player in 2025, SS Geraldo Perdomo, is also back. If the D-Backs can find a path to consistent, average pitching, they might surprise some people.

Key Player: Zac Gallen, RHP

He’s starting the year as the Snakes’ No. 1 starter, but he’s coming off the worst season of his career. Arizona needs vintage Gallen to compete for a playoff spot.

17. Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians’ margin for error is thin, but they have a chance to pull off another Wild Card run if they can keep their pitching healthy, and find a legitimate No. 3. The duo of Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams at the top of the rotation has a shot to be really good, and the bullpen still boasts enough quality and back-end impact to win a lot of close games.

The lineup is anchored by Jose Ramirez and ignited by Steven Kwan, but they are going to need a few bats to step up. Kyle Manzardo is a candidate, and Rhys Hoskins should help, at least against lefties.

Key Player: Chase DeLauter, OF

The dude can hit, but hasn’t been able to stay healthy, managing just 138 games in three seasons as a pro. He’ll get his shot in the big leagues to start 2026 and could be the kind of catalyst the Guardians need.

18. Atlanta Braves

On paper, this is a top 8 team, but only if you ignore the injury notes. Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep are out for the year. Spencer Strider is on the IL to start the season. AJ Smith-Shawyer isn’t likely to return until August. Joey Wentz tore his ACL and he will also miss the year. The good news is Chris Sale is healthy and still among the elite starters in baseball. But the issues don’t stop there.

Ha-Seong Kim had surgery on his hand and will be out until at least late April, and Sean Murphy is expected to be out until May. The club made only marginal improvements to the lineup, including Mike Yastrzemski, Mauricio Dubon, and Jonah Heim.

Key Player: Strider

Strider’s return from injury in 2025 went OK, but a fully healthy version, even if for just 25-28 starts, goes a long way toward the Braves’ postseason hopes.

19. San Francisco Giants

I haven’t a clue what Buster Posey and the Giants are trying to accomplish. They spent big in the trade for Rafael Devers, signed Willy Adames to a large deal, acquired Robbie Ray even before he’s healthy, and handed Jung-Hoo Lee $100 million. They did little to add impact to the rotation this winter, and will be without key reliever Randy Rodriguez all season, and rotation candidate Hayden Birdsong will miss 2026 with elbow surgery.

The addition of Harrison Bader will help the club’s outfield defense and overall athleticism, but asking him to repeat his 2025 offensive output is a bit much. Luis Arraez could help offensively, but there’s nothing for Posey and new manager Tony Vitiello to hang their hats on. There’s no identity.

Key Player: Bryce Eldridge, 1B

Eldridge is the Giants’ top prospect and may break into the big leagues in the first half of 2026. He’s the kind of bat that can change a lineup.

20. Pittsburgh Pirates

It’s not likely a playoff roster, but it’s no longer a laughing stock. The Pirates went out and added some proven talent, namely Ryan O’Hearn and Marcell Ozuna, and traded for Brandon Lowe. That trio should be enough to get the Pirates into the Top 20 or so in runs - they ranked No. 28 a year ago, and posted the second-worst wRC+ in baseball (82). The rotation after Skenes is young with a lot of upside, though righty Jared Jones will miss the first few months of the season.

Pittsburgh added Gregory Soto to what might be a solid relief group. Overall, a .500 season is more than realistic here, and if they get more out of Bubba Chandler than expected and top prospect Konnor Griffin runs into no walls once he arrives, that number could turn into 85 in a hurry.

Key Player: Bryan Reynolds, OF

With the veteran additions to the lineup, Reynolds finding his groove again could be a game-changer, especially considering he has five years left on the eight-year deal he signed prior to the 2023 season. He fell to average last season after five straight above-average full seasons.

21. Athletics

The A’s probably won’t pitch well in 2026, but they hit in 2025 and the lineup looks pretty shiny right now. Nick Kurtz for a full season, Jacob Wilson, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, and Tyler Soderstrom are back, it’s year 2 for Lawrence Butler, and veteran Jeff McNeil was added to the mix. If this club had an average rotation they’d rank at least 10 spots higher. After Luis Severino, the A’s have four back-end starters, and the pitching help from the system probably isn’t going to arrive until later this season or early next. The bullpen has a chance to be solid, though.

Key Player: Brent Rooker, OF

Rooker is the veteran in the middle of the order who takes attention and pressure off the younger hitters.

22. Cincinnati Reds

Hunter Greene is out for about half of 2026, Nick Lodolo won’t miss a lot of time, but he won’t make his season debut for at least a couple of weeks. This is not a good start for the Reds’ chances. Cincinnati’s lineup was below average last season, posting a 92 wRC+, and the club’s response was to sign Nathaniel Lowe and Eugenio Suarez. Both could and probably will help. But the upside play of Matt McLain, top prospect Sal Stewart, and Noelvi Marte could give the Reds a chance to stay in the mix, and the bullpen has a chance to be pretty solid.

Key Player: McLain

He’s flashed the ability to hit for some average and power, can play defense at second, and run the bases. He has to put the ball in play more, however, and get back to a line-drive approach. He hasn’t hit on the road much at all, including a 56 wRC+ a year ago.

23. Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have their ace back. Carson Williams may be ready to take over at shortstop full time, that bullpen has a shot to be outstanding, as long as Edwin Uceta’s stay on the IL is short. They may struggle to score runs consistently, but Junior Caminero and Yandy Diaz will hit, Jonathan Aranda projects well after his 2025 campaign, and if Cedric Mullins has anything left in the tank the Rays may fight their way into a .500 or better season. The rotation depth may be their backbreaker, though.

Key Player: Drew Rasmussen, RHP

Ras is coming off a terrific 2025 despite below-average strikeout rates. He can get some ground balls, but his HR/FB rate spiked last year, and his swinging strike rate plummeted to the lowest of his career. The Rays could be a disaster if they don’t get quality innings out of Rasmussen.

24. Minnesota Twins

The Twins took a few steps back the past year or so, and moved some pieces at the deadline to help set them up for 2027 and 2028. The wins aren’t going to come in 2026 much, though, but there’s a lot to tune in and watch, including ace Joe Ryan. Taj Bradley and Mick Abel join the rotation in hopes to be part of the next playoff rotation for the Twins, but this is probably just another season when the club moves veterans for long-term answers, potentially including Ryan.

Key Player: Royce Lewis, 3B

This is all about his trade value. :)

25. Los Angeles Angels

The Angels aren’t going to be good, but there’s more to like about this club versus a year ago. The bullpen has a better chance to compete with the additions of Drew Pomeranz and Jordan Romano, plus the eventual returns of Kirby Yates and Robert Stephenson, both of whom are on the IL to begin the season. Jose Soriano is a breakout candidate in the rotation, and once Grayson Rodriguez gets back they’ll have more upside to chase.

Offensively, they’re missing pieces, but Zach Neto, Nolan Schanuel, Mike Trout, Jo Adell, and Christian Moore are a decent place to start for a club looking to start climbing north.

Key Player: Logan O’Hoppe, C

O’Hoppe flashed signs of all-star level production in 2023 and 2024, but the wagon ride was too bumpy a year ago when he posted a 72 wRC+. Contact was a problem in general, but it’s mostly about breaking balls (.156 AVG, 42% whiff). If he gets back to average or better, the Halos lineup might look viable.

26. Miami Marlins

The upside here could get the Fish back into the Top 20, especially if ace Sandy Alcantara gets back to form and Eury Perez stays healthy. The Marlins have the makings of a pretty good bullpen with Pete Fairbanks, Anthony Bender, Andrew Nardi, and Calvin Faucher. It’s too bad Ronny Henriquez will miss the year, because this could have been a great bullpen. At the plate, Miami will lean heavily on Kyle Stowers, who was great a year ago as a late-bloomer (28), posting a 149 wRC+ in 117 games. Jakob Marsee and Heriberto Hernandez were good in partial seasons. After that, it’s a lot of question marks and marginal performers, but there’s upside in Augustin Ramirez and the newly-acquired Owen Caissie.

Key Player: Max Meyer, RHP

He’s been hurt a ton since the Draft and didn’t look good in 12 starts a year ago, but the stuff was nasty this spring, and the former No. 3 overall pick is ready for the start of the season. If he can pitch with some impact and get to 120 or more innings, he could help the Marlins’ rotation creep above average.

27. Chicago White Sox

For the first time in a while, the Pale Hose have multiple talents on which to build their next winner, starting with catcher Kyle Teel and infielder Colson Montgomery. There’s more talent coming from the system, too. The playoffs are still a few years away and they’ll need a lot more pitching, but you can see light at the end of the tunnel.

Key Player: Munetaka Murakami, 1B/DH

Murakami isn’t likely to be around the next time the Sox are actually good, but if he hits, he supports a developmental environment in the majors and serves as a valuable trade chip next summer.

28. St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have torn it down, shipping out veterans over the winter for young players, a fresh start with payroll, and new leadership. They did well in those trades, but this is going to take a while to get back. The fun part for Cards fans is they don’t have to wait for the future to show up at Busch. JJ Wetherholt will join Masyn Winn and Alec Burleson on the club’s infield in 2026. Top pitching prospects Liam Doyle and Brandon Clarke are likely a year away, and Jurrangelo Cijntje could see the bigs by September. It will be lean for a bit, but there’s a path to something solid in 2028.

Key Player: Ivan Herrera, DH

Herrera is a budding star, putting up a 137 wRC+ in 107 games in 2025 after a strong 72-game showing in 2024. He’s 25 years old and ready to roll out a 150-game season where 30 homers is a distinct possibility. Such a breakout might suggest he’s either a core member of the next winning team in St. Louis or part of a massive trade that returns the kind of haul that tops off a rebuild.

29. Washington Nationals

The Nationals would rank higher here if I believed they were done trading players away. I don’t, so this is me projecting the club gets worse, still, before it gets better. It probably starts with CJ Abrams and could include Keibert Ruiz and James Wood before it’s all said and done. The Nats’ pitching situation is the most dire for the foreseeable future, even including their farm system.

Key Player: Ruiz, C

Ruiz is signed through 2030 with two club options prior to the 2023 season, but has gone backwards since. For the club’s sake, Ruiz needs to figure it out so they can trade him.

30. Colorado Rockies

I’d like to see someone like Theo Epstein take over the Rockies to just get this club up off the mat. You can win in Denver, it’s been done before, but the roster building approach has been archaic, limiting the Rockies to five playoff appearances since their inception in 1993. They have not won a playoff game since 2009, which was also the last time they had a .500 or better season. Nothing the club did over the winter lends confidence they’ll be anything but really bad again.

Key Player: Hunter Goodman, C

Goodman is the Rockies’ best player, and he’s headed for free agency after the 2027 season. This could be his last run, and he’s one of the better catchers in baseball. At 26, with two years of control remaining, he could fetch a nice haul.

The Houston Astros have done a pretty good job the last few years remaining competitive as they lose elite free agents (Gerrit Cole, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker) at the same time their farm system runs dry.

Do they have enough starting pitching? Can Yordan Alvarez stay healthy and reignite the lineup that slid to No. 12 in runs in 2025?

If the answer to either is no, does GM Dana Brown have the ammo to land impact help over the summer? That one’s tough to see.

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Additions

Mike Burrows, RHP
Tatsuya Imai, RHP
Christian Vazquez, C
Joey Loperfido, OF

Subtractions

Framber Valdez, LHP
Victor Caratini, C
Craig Kimbrel, RHR
Mauricio Dubón, UT
Ramon Urias, UT
Chas McCormick, OF

Key Injury Notes

Closer Josh Hader starts the season on the IL with a biceps issue. The injuries are beginning to pile up a bit with the lefty. Right-hander Ronel Blanco has an elbow issue that will push him to the IL to start 2026, and righty Enyel De Los Santos has a knee problem that will prevent him starting the season just yet.

Nate Pearson, Hayden Wesneski, Bennett Sousa, and Brandon Walter will also miss the start of the season. All of the above, expect for Walter, are on the 15-day variety.

Outfielder Zach Dezenzo is on the 10-day IL with an elbow issue, serving as the lone non-pitching injury right now for the Astros.

Cristian Javier starts the season healthy and ready to go after missing most of 2024 and 2025 (15 starts combined). Lance McCullers Jr. is also active to kick off 2026.

Payroll

237M / 26-man
$241M / 40-man

The Astros are carrying a hefty payroll thanks to the additions of Christian Walker, Correa, Imai over the past year or so, but it’s worth noting the club shakes free from McCullers after this season, and Javier after next, clearing nearly $40 million from the books.

Unfortunately, Correa adds $65 million in salary over the next four years, $46 million of that over the next two. Walker is owed $40 million over these next two seasons.

Houston’s payroll health is running on fumes.

Top Prospects

Xavier Neyens, 3B
Ethan Frey, OF
Brice Matthews, 2B
Walker Janek, C
Kevin Alvarez, OF

The Astros haven’t developed much impact the last handful of years outside of Hunter Brown. Four of their top 5 prospects are at least a year and a half away, and their top two (Neyens, Alvarez) are probably three-plus years from the majors.

There’s not a single over-50 OFP prospect within two years of the big leagues in their entire system, but Matthews has twitch and bat speed to flash as early as this season.

Analysis

The Astros may be an example of a club who isn’t as good as the sum of their parts, but to buy that one that has to believe they’ll stay healthier than a year ago, and see Imaya as a mid-rotation performer.

By themselves, neither may be too much to ask. But combined it’s probably a stretch.

Add in the club’s challenge of getting their best hitters into the lineup together and the lack of a farm system capable of helping much on the field or via trade and we might be seeing the official end of the Astros’ run.

Alvarez alone can make an enormous difference, however, and the upside of the rotation is pretty intriguing with everyone healthy to start the year and their ace primed for a run at the Cy Young.

Still, the club is asking a lot of Alvarez to stay off the IL, Correa to do the same while bouncing back at the plate. But it’s also a lot to ask of Cam Smith, and perhaps even Matthews, and others to help make up for the fading production of Walker and Jose Altuve, and the chance the club’s pitching staff takes a step back.

I like them for more than 81 wins, but it’s difficult to see 90 without some luck and unforeseen developments.