Know Your Enemy: Houston Astros
The Astros could have another run in them.
The Houston Astros have done a pretty good job the last few years remaining competitive as they lose elite free agents (Gerrit Cole, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker) at the same time their farm system runs dry.
Do they have enough starting pitching? Can Yordan Alvarez stay healthy and reignite the lineup that slid to No. 12 in runs in 2025?
If the answer to either is no, does GM Dana Brown have the ammo to land impact help over the summer? That one’s tough to see.
Join the Baseball Things Discord (FREE)
Additions
Mike Burrows, RHP
Tatsuya Imai, RHP
Christian Vazquez, C
Joey Loperfido, OF
Subtractions
Framber Valdez, LHP
Victor Caratini, C
Craig Kimbrel, RHR
Mauricio Dubón, UT
Ramon Urias, UT
Chas McCormick, OF
Key Injury Notes
Closer Josh Hader starts the season on the IL with a biceps issue. The injuries are beginning to pile up a bit with the lefty. Right-hander Ronel Blanco has an elbow issue that will push him to the IL to start 2026, and righty Enyel De Los Santos has a knee problem that will prevent him starting the season just yet.
Nate Pearson, Hayden Wesneski, Bennett Sousa, and Brandon Walter will also miss the start of the season. All of the above, expect for Walter, are on the 15-day variety.
Outfielder Zach Dezenzo is on the 10-day IL with an elbow issue, serving as the lone non-pitching injury right now for the Astros.
Cristian Javier starts the season healthy and ready to go after missing most of 2024 and 2025 (15 starts combined). Lance McCullers Jr. is also active to kick off 2026.
Payroll
237M / 26-man
$241M / 40-man
The Astros are carrying a hefty payroll thanks to the additions of Christian Walker, Correa, Imai over the past year or so, but it’s worth noting the club shakes free from McCullers after this season, and Javier after next, clearing nearly $40 million from the books.
Unfortunately, Correa adds $65 million in salary over the next four years, $46 million of that over the next two. Walker is owed $40 million over these next two seasons.
Houston’s payroll health is running on fumes.
Top Prospects
Xavier Neyens, 3B
Ethan Frey, OF
Brice Matthews, 2B
Walker Janek, C
Kevin Alvarez, OF
The Astros haven’t developed much impact the last handful of years outside of Hunter Brown. Four of their top 5 prospects are at least a year and a half away, and their top two (Neyens, Alvarez) are probably three-plus years from the majors.
There’s not a single over-50 OFP prospect within two years of the big leagues in their entire system, but Matthews has twitch and bat speed to flash as early as this season.
Analysis
The Astros may be an example of a club who isn’t as good as the sum of their parts, but to buy that one that has to believe they’ll stay healthier than a year ago, and see Imaya as a mid-rotation performer.
By themselves, neither may be too much to ask. But combined it’s probably a stretch.
Add in the club’s challenge of getting their best hitters into the lineup together and the lack of a farm system capable of helping much on the field or via trade and we might be seeing the official end of the Astros’ run.
Alvarez alone can make an enormous difference, however, and the upside of the rotation is pretty intriguing with everyone healthy to start the year and their ace primed for a run at the Cy Young.
Still, the club is asking a lot of Alvarez to stay off the IL, Correa to do the same while bouncing back at the plate. But it’s also a lot to ask of Cam Smith, and perhaps even Matthews, and others to help make up for the fading production of Walker and Jose Altuve, and the chance the club’s pitching staff takes a step back.
I like them for more than 81 wins, but it’s difficult to see 90 without some luck and unforeseen developments.
