Seam-Shifted: Witt Jr., Yordan, Schlittler and the new King Felix (sorta)
Let's take a look at some fun numbers that tell fun (or scary in one case today) stories.
Welcome to Seam-Shifted here at Baseball Things, where we lift the hood on the modern game of baseball. We’ll dive into advanced analytics and underlying metrics to break down player performance through the lens of individual games, seasons, and everything in between.
We’ll also dabble in scouting and player development, and bounce around levels and leagues.
If you want to move past standard box scores, you are in the right place — at least one of the right places.
Mainly, we’re just gonna have fun with baseball.
The Best Pitcher in Baseball Isn’t Skenes
Even after a strong showing last fall, the best pitcher in baseball in 2026 wasn’t foreseeable, and the leaderboard in such a category, while somewhat subjective, appears different enough from what was predictable in March to note after a third of the season
I often talk about ways to help hitters beyond traditional “lineup protection,” and it’s all about putting runners on base ahead of him. Well, Cam Schlittler doesn’t seem to give a damn. He leads all of baseball in pitcher fWAR at 2.9, and has arrived here, in part, by getting tough with runners on base.
His LOB rate of 82.7% ranks in the Top 20 and is far from unsustainable (for the most part), but with runners on base, he’s held opposing batters to .194 wOBA and .165/.214/.203 slash with a 30-5 K/BB ratio. He’s been even better with runners in scoring position, allowing a .105 average.
Overall, Schlittler owns an elite 2.56 xERA and 1.91 FIP combo, suggesting there’s very little luck or randomness happening here. He has elite fastball value (.188 BA, .257 SLGA with a 35% whiff rate versus his four-seamer), and the slash-line success versus his curveball also comes with a 41% whiff rate and the fact that he only throws the pitch 6-7% of the time.
If there’s a complaint to be had here, it’s the lack of a high-quality breaking ball, but so far the four-seamer and cutter have been too much for the league. That success is banked, and I’m not sure there are any signs yet of batters being capable of sitting on the hard stuff and teeing off on him.
The Best All-Around Player in the Game
Bobby Witt Jr. is a highly respected player, a star, a superstar even, and perhaps the best player in baseball the last three years behind Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge. He sits atop the American League this season with a 3.5 fWAR, nearly a full win ahead of Corbin Carroll (2.7) and Andy Pages (2.7).
That’s not surprising, and neither is the point that Witt adds value all over the field. But such a benign fact tells so little of the story in 2026. The Kansas City Royals star owned a 135 WRC+ through May 26, a very good line for almost anyone. But Witt’s WAR lead is more heavily weighted on defense and baserunning than is even remotely typical, further illustrating his all-around abilities.
Witt ranks as the 38th best hitter in baseball, but No. 1 in defensive runs above average, and at 2.7 (No. 7) is among the elite baserunners in the game, too. But let’s get back to the point: The 25-year-old leads the entire league in fWAR without being anywhere near its best hitter, and that’s unique.
It almost makes me want to dive deeper into the value slices of MVPs.
Almost. (at least for now)
And Now, Scary Thoughts, by Yordan Alvarez
We all know Yordan Alvarez is a tremendous hitter. I often say Alvarez truly is what some think Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is. For the record, Alvarez, by wRC+, is nearly 30% better than Guerrero at the plate over the course of their careers (164-136). Guerrero has just two seasons that compete with Alvarez’s career averages.
This season might be Alvarez’s best yet, too. But beyond his 185 wRC+, which leads the big leagues, he’s batting .303/.414/.631 … there’s a chance Alvarez has been unlucky, and those numbers should be even bigger.
Through May 26, Alvarez’s xwOBA is .489, and what’s crazy is his wOBA is .440. He’s not getting lucky at all; he’s earning his numbers. But his BABIP is low at .296. His career mark is 22 points higher, suggesting he could be hitting over nearly .330, raising his OBP into the .435 range, and assuming the same extra-base hit ratio would raise his slugging to the .660-.670 range. This would produce a wRC+ of 200 or higher, meaning ~100% better than league average.
Only Aaron Judge has posted a 200 or better over the last 25 years, and just 14 players have done it in a full, qualifying season — ever. Two of those came via pre-1900. It’s been done just 33 times in 150 seasons, and eight times since 1990. Alvarez is performing at this level right now.
shudder.
Wood he BE Any Better?
Little Chandler Bing for you there. James Wood of the Washington Nationals has been a star in 2026. His .276/.314/.551 slash comes with 15 home runs, a 168 wRC+, and 2.5 fWAR. His defense is poor, so his WAR is dragged down. It’s been an impactful offensive season for Wood, who ranks No. 6 in baseball with a 17% walk rate, and No. 2 in xwOBA at .437 (Alvarez is No. 1, shocking, I know).
Especially considering Wood’s power (15 HR), elite raw bat speed (76.6 AVG), longer swing (7.4), and in-zone contact rate (84.2%), his 22.3% chase rate is elite. The strange thing is, Wood owns a 29% strikeout rate.
My development questions here for the 23-year-old would include figuring out how this is happening and how to combat it. I’d start with his out-of-zone contact rate (41%, suggesting he struggles there or extends beyond the shadows too far, too often, despite the general lack of chase. League average is 59-60% in 2026). He’s had massive contact problems against breaking balls, and while he does see them 8% more often versus left-handed pitchers, he’s still whiffing 49% of the time when righties throw him sliders or curveballs.
In addition, his zone profile — which I did not investigate — may show some areas in the zone that are giving him problems, too. It’s unlikely to be just about the breaking ball.
Wood’s ability to swing at strikes and limit chases is terrific, but the underlying facts suggest a lot of room for improvement in the big picture. Or he’ll simply turn out to be a three-true-outcome player, albeit a pretty valuable one with a chance to hit .260-.280 with 40 homers. No one will complain about that, except opponents.
Highly Differing Paths to 6-win Seasons?
Fangraphs’ version of WAR includes defense, using fielding runs, or defensive runs, derived from Statcast’s Outs Above Average as a base. Runs above average can then be turned into wins. Essentially, 10 runs equals a win.
Knowing this, we can certainly understand why seven players are paced for 5-6 win campaigns, but in two very different ways.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is an elite defender in center field, Witt Jr. the same at shortstop. Colson Montgomery is headed for such distinction, too, and Dillon Dingler is rolling along behind the plate. As much disdain as I have for small-sample metrics, all signs beyond the first third of the 2026 season suggest more of the same for these four players (good-elite defenders), so we’ll run with it in this instance, and with confidence.
All four are 2-win players already this season, and while all but Crow-Armstrong have posted strong offensive value, their defense is an enormous reason their value reads as high as it does.
For Wood, Alvarez, Jordan Walker, and, surprisingly, albeit by a lesser ratio, Byron Buxton, defense has done nothing to help them, but all are at the 2-win mark and paced for 5-6 fWAR for the year.
We’ve talked about Wood and Alvarez at the plate — and we know their lack of value in the field is real and not just small-sample mirages. Walker, too, has been very good in what appears to be his breakout season. But his defense in right field has been well below average over the course of his career, which includes nearly 2500 innings across parts of four seasons.
On the surface, it’s odd that Walker owns a +6 DRS but a -2 OAA — perhaps the difference between the two and how to explain why the results conflict is something we tackle down the road — but OAA is part of the fWAR formula (though it’s not the entire defensive portion), DRS is not.
Buxton’s season is the oddball here. He’s known for his defense, but the last three or four years, he’s shown some wear and tear and has generally posted around average value in the field. This season, he’s literally at zero runs above average defensively, meaning his 1.9 fWAR is more about his bat this season (.143 wRC+) than ever before.
Very different players, very similar value. There are lots of ways to provide value.
Regression for These 5 Arms?
When analyzing performance, we’re always looking for evidence the performance to date is somewhat sustainable, or evidence it’s probably not.
These three pitchers may see some regression, based on their ERA vs FIP. FIP, of course, is like ERA, but with normalized results after the ball is put in play to account for varying defensive and ballpark effects.
Nick Martinez, TB: 1.51 ERA, 3.45 FIP
Martinez’s FIP is still good, so ‘regression’ here doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t be good. His xFIP of 4.26 suggests league average, and since he’s not going to miss bats (career 16.7% K rate, 14.9% in 2026), Martinez is relying on weak contact, and unfortunately, not much of it is of the ground ball type, which would limit damage.
Chase Burns, CIN: 1.96 ERA, 3.39 FIP
While nearly every pitcher with a sub-2.00 ERA is probably due for regression, it doesn’t mean their performance is based on more luck than anything else. Burns has good stuff, and his FIP, xFIP (3.15), and xERA (2.88) are also good.
There will be regression in the ERA column, but not enough to sell on Burns in the least, a high-ceiling starter with strikeout stuff (29%) and solid-average control and command at just 23 years of age. I’d be more worried about his ability to stay off the IL.
Bryce Elder, ATL: 1.97 ERA, 3.28 FIP
Elder relies on pitch mix, led by a plus low-mid 80s slider, and so far in 2026, the ability to keep the ball in the yard. I don’t buy anything but the slider, which he throws more than any other pitch.
These Two Should See the Other Kind of Regression
Seth Lugo, KC: 3.74 ERA, 3.08 FIP
Lugo has never been a big strikeout pitcher — at least a starter, he’s landed above 25% as a reliever before — and he’s never been a ground ball guy, either. It’s less predictable, but the righty has a knack for inducing weak contact.
I do wonder if he can continue to walk 8-9% of the batter he faces if his 20%-or-under strikeout rate and 36% ground ball rate can carry him to another 4-plus win season (2024), and anything beyond three wins might be tough despite his 1.7 fWAR start, considering the quality of contact against him so far in 2026.
I don’t buy his 4% HR/FB rate in the slightest, and all his strike and whiff rates continue to decline.
Reid Detmers, LAA: 4.57 ERA, 2.82 FIP
Detmers’ defense has let him down, as his FIP, xFIP, and xERA say he has been significantly better than his ERA suggests — another reason to ignore ERA.
Detmers has been good in his return to the rotation, maintaining nearly all of his ability to miss bats (28%), throwing more strikes than ever, and consistently giving the Angels a fighting chance.
He’s had a few nasty blips that include a four-walk and six-walk outing, but he just tasered the Texas Rangers with 14 strikeouts over eight innings of one-run baseball. He was a Jake Burger second-inning homer from theoretically taking a perfect game into the ninth inning.
Some might recall that Detmers was the Angels’ first-round pick in 2020, the same year the Mariners selected Emerson Hancock. Both are having breakout years this season, but Detmers may be prime trade bait this summer as he creeps toward steeper arbitration salaries and free agency on a bad team.
Detmers entered 2026 with three full years of service (two-time arbitration) and is scheduled to hit free agency after the 2028 season.
Hancock has one year of service, won’t be arbitration eligible until after 2027, and free agency won’t hit until after the 2030 season.
During the draft process back then, I wrote how the Mariners’ backup plan to Hancock should be Detmers, not infielder Nick Gonzalez.
Gonzalez is now 27, will be eligible for arbitration after this season, and is putting up a 104 wRC+ thus far. He’s a solid defender at second, but has no power and doesn’t carry significant apparent upside. In other words, not only did the Mariners make the right decision, but Churchill had it right on Detmers vs. Gonzalez, despite many pining for the ‘hitter.’
Cristopher Sanchez is the (more) modern, lefty version of King Felix
Ok, that’s a bit of a stretch, but stay with me. Sanchez, 29, is among the elite starters in baseball right now, and the way he is getting outs is similar to that of prime Felix.
When adjusting for eras (strikeouts), it’s nearly identical.
Sanchez is punching out 29% of the batters he’s facing and owns a 58.3% ground ball rate. Not all of those 58.3% are outs, and that rate is calculated by balls in play only, but that’s a lot of outs without the ball being lifted into the air.
The real math is close, though, as 83.6% of the outs Sanchez has recorded this season are by way of groundout or strikeout.
Hernandez’s best years were just under 80%, with 2014’s 80.4% rate his career high. It’s extremely similar, and adjusting for the strikeout era here, the two are pretty much identical in this manner.
Neither Sanchez nor Felix threw what I would call dominating sinkers — certainly not like Derek Lowe, Brandon Webb, or Kevin Brown. But grounders from their sinker and changeup did the trick in combo, and Sanchez is still doing it.
For the record, batted ball data is only available for the final four years of Brown’s career (2002-2005) when he was 37-40 years old, and his whole career took place long before the strikeout era began. He still posted 83-85% strikeouts + ground outs at that stage of his career.
Brown would go 95mph with a four-seamer (the old way to track velo, too, so more like 97-98) and for strikes, a lot of strikes, get the batter swinging in pitcher counts, then throw the sinker at the bottom of the zone or just below it and destroy your bat, your hands, your reputation, and if you let him, you entire life. He threw so hard, too, you don’t see the late sink as much and as often as if you watched Lowe or Webb.
If you ever wanted to know what a bowling ball sinker looks like, Brown had it.
#WTFKB
