Seattle Mariners Roster Projection 1.0
It's about that time.
We’re two weeks into the Cactus League schedule and nearly a month into spring training. The Seattle Mariners roster began camp nearly set, with perhaps three bullpen decisions and one bench spot up for grabs.
Here’s what that looks like now, at least for me.
*Note: This is a projection, not necessarily the roster I’d take north.
PODCAST: Sloan vs. Gilbert, Kirby as Prospects
Starting Pitchers
Logan Gilbert, RH
Bryan Woo, RH
Luis Castillo, RH
George Kirby, RH
Bryce Miller, RH
No changes … yet. Kirby and Miller were shut down and could easily have their seasons pushed back a week or more, but as of today, there is still time for them to get ready to start games four and five of the season on March 29 and 30 at T-Mobile Park.
The favorites to fill in, if the need arises, are right-handers Cooper Criswell and Emerson Hancock.
This is also the order I’d project the five to be deployed, as of today. Gilbert is the team’s horse and a healthy version still projects as the best starter on the roster and most capable of topping 200 innings and consistently going six and seven innings.
Bullpen
Andrés Muñoz, RH
Jose Ferrer, LH
Gabe Speier, LH
Matt Brash, RH
Eduard Bazardo, RH
Cooper Criswell, RH
Yosver Zulueta, RH
Cole Wilcox, RH
Criswell makes the team here as a reliever for two reasons. One, it’s early in the year, and he’s capable of rolling out multi-inning appearances to cover innings as rotation arms get stretched out in the colder weather. He’s also out of options, and there’s a very good chance he’s claimed if the club tries to push him through waivers and get him to Triple-A.
If Criswell is needed in the rotation, right-hander Domingo Gonzalez would be the next arm up here in this projection.
I’m not sure the Mariners should or want to force a third lefty into their bullpen as some national pundits have opined, but Josh Simpson has shown better stuff and command than Robinson Ortiz in the tiny sample that has transpired to date.
Zulueta has shown a swing-and-miss slider to get the nod here, as has Wilcox. Both had sat 94-97 mph.
Brash’s tooth issue stalled his spring activities, but he appears on track to ramp up in plenty of time.
Lineup
1B: Josh Naylor
2B: Cole Young
3B: Brendan Donovan
SS: J.P. Crawford
C: Cal Raleigh
LF: Randy Arozarena
CF: Julio Rodriguez
RF: Luke Raley
DH: Dominic Canzone
For the sake of this exercise, I assumed a right-handed starting pitcher for the starting lineup above, hence Raley over Robles/Refsnyder. Raley is a better glove than Canzone (albeit not by as much as some seem to think), so he gets the starting gig here.
Young has had a few moments at the plate this spring and has looked pretty darned good defensively at second, but his ability to manage versus left-handed pitching remains in serious question, which should impact the club’s decision on the bench. We’ll get to that, well, right now.
I expect Donovan to lead off versus right-handed pitchers, but there’s no sensible argument for keeping him there against lefties. Rob Refsnyder makes a ton of sense to bat ahead of the middle of the order against left-handers, though Victor Robles could earn some looks, too.
I much prefer Rodriguez in the two-hole and Raleigh hitting third, but the club may be afraid of Rodriguez’s ground-ball tendencies and his team-leading 15 GIDPs from a year ago.
Bench
C: Mitch Garver
IF: Leo Rivas
OF: Rob Refsnyder
OF: Victor Robles
The final position player on the roster seems to be a choice between Miles Mastrobuoni and Rivas, and with Rivas being the better runner and glove, he has the advantage anyway. But the kicker is his ability to switch hit, which means he’s an option to stand in for Young or even Donovan (which I wouldn’t expect much of) in key spots versus left-handed pitching.
Mastrobuoni has an options advantage, however — meaning, he has none, and Rivas has one left — but the club’s options around the infield in 2026 are pretty solid, including top prospect Colt Emerson. Ryan Bliss and Brock Rodden also serve as meaningful depth. Plus, there’s always a legit chance Mastrobuoni clears waivers.
Garver has a better chance to provide legit backup catcher offense (which is around an 87-90 wRC+, depending on the year, and he knows the pitching staff well. Andrew Knizner has a defensive edge, but has never hit much in his career, and the Mariners seem set in Triple-A (Brian O’Keefe, Jonny Pereda) if they attempt to slip Knizner through waivers. Knizner has the right to refuse an assignment if he’d prefer to become a free agent, but Garver is a pretty easy choice here, assuming health.
